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Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets

机译：货币危机，货币政策和公司资产负债表

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摘要

This paper studies how the exposure of a country's corporate sector to interest rate and exchange rate changes affects the probability of a currency crisis. To analyze this question, we present a model that defines currency crises as situations in which the costs of maintaining a fixed exchange rate exceed the costs of abandonment. The results show that a higher exposure to interest rate changes increases the probability of crisis through an increased need for output loss compensation and an increased efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output. A higher exposure to exchange rate changes also increases the need for output loss compensation. However, it lowers the efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output through the adverse balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciation. As a result, its effect on the probability of crisis is ambiguous.
机译：本文研究了一个国家的公司部门受到利率和汇率变化的影响如何影响货币危机的可能性。为了分析这个问题，我们提出一个模型，将货币危机定义为维持固定汇率的成本超过放弃成本的情况。结果表明，更高的利率变动风险通过增加对产出损失补偿的需求以及提高货币政策刺激产出的效力而增加了发生危机的可能性。较高的汇率变动风险也增加了对输出损失补偿的需求。但是，它通过汇率贬值的不利资产负债表效应降低了货币政策刺激产出的效力。结果，它对危机可能性的影响是模棱两可的。

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