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首页> 外文期刊>German Politics >Government Formation after the 2009 Federal Election: The Remake of the Christian-Liberal Coalition under New Patterns of Party Competition
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Government Formation after the 2009 Federal Election: The Remake of the Christian-Liberal Coalition under New Patterns of Party Competition

机译：2009年联邦大选后的政府组建：新的党派竞争格局下的基督教自由联盟的重制

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The question ‘who gets in?’ is one of the central research areas in studies on coalition politics. This paper analyses government formation after the 2009 Bundestag elections in Germany. On the basis of the ‘Political Heart’ model, which is modified in a way so as to include the parties' pre-electoral coalition statements, it is argued that the Christian Democrats maintained a pivotal position during the 2009 German coalition formation game. In a second step, the probabilities for all coalition options are estimated on the basis of the seat distribution in the 17th Bundestag and in a hypothetical parliament where the CDU/CSU and FDP do not have a majority. The results show that, firstly, a Christian-Liberal coalition was by far the most likely outcome of the actual government formation process. If, however, CDU/CSU and FDP had not achieved a parliamentary majority, then a remake of the ‘grand coalition’ between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats would be the most likely result of the coalition negotiations. Secondly, the data reveals that the so-called ‘Jamaica coalition’ between Christian Democrats, FDP and Greens and a coalition between SPD, Greens and the ‘Linke’ would be a realistic alternative to a ‘grand coalition’.View full textDownload full textRelated var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2011.554117
机译：“谁进入”这个问题是联盟政治研究的中心研究领域之一。本文分析了2009年德国联邦议院选举后的政府组成。在“政治心”模型的基础上进行了修改，以包括当事方的选举前联盟声明，有人认为基督教民主党在2009年德国联盟成立期间保持了举足轻重的地位。游戏。第二步，根据第十七届联邦议院的席位分布以及在基民盟/基社盟和自由民主党不占多数的假设议会中，评估所有联盟方案的概率。结果表明，首先，基督教自由联盟是实际的政府组建过程中最有可能产生的结果。但是，如果基民盟/基社盟和自由民主党没有取得议会多数席位，那么在基督教民主人士和社会民主党之间重塑“大联盟”将是联盟谈判的最有可能的结果。其次，数据表明，基督教民主党，自由民主党和格林斯之间的所谓“牙买加联盟”以及社民党，格林斯和“林克”之间的联盟将是“大国”的现实替代。查看全文下载全文相关变量var addthis_config = {ui_cobrand：“泰勒和弗朗西斯在线”，servicescompact：“ citlikelike，netvibes，twitter，technorati，delicious，linkedin，facebook，stumbleupon，digg，google，更多”，pubid： “ ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b”};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2011.554117

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