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Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: Analysis over the 20th century

机译：欧洲循环模式持续存在对冷暖温度异常的影响：20世纪的分析

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Recent studies have pointed out that persistence of the atmospheric circulation over Europe, as measured by residence times of circulation types, has increased since the mid-1980s in all seasons and for most groups of the types. The greater persistence may affect surface climatic anomalies, particularly the frequency and severity of heat and cold waves associated with severe impacts on society and environment. In this paper, relationships between the persistence of circulation types over Europe and extreme surface air temperature anomalies are studied over the 20th century using the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue of large-scale circulation patterns and long-term temperature series at stations covering most of the European continent. Types significantly conducive to heat and cold waves are identified, and temperature anomalies are linked to their persistence. It is shown that more persistent circulation enhances the severity of temperature extremes over the whole area, which is slightly more important for warm than cold temperature anomalies. The changes in both frequencies and residence times of circulation patterns have been supporting sharply rising trends in warm temperature extremes observed over Europe in recent decades, and the circulation changes may also contributed to the fact that trends in cold temperature extremes have been less pronounced or absent in the same period. The findings also emphasize the need for taking into account the persistence of circulation types together with their frequencies when evaluating links between the atmospheric circulation and the surface climate. In global warming context, the effects of the future climate change on the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes may be exacerbated by a more persistent circulation related to a decreased cyclone activity over mid-latitudes and a northward shift of storm tracks.
机译：最近的研究指出，自1980年代中期以来，欧洲的大气环流持续时间（以环流类型的停留时间来衡量）在所有季节和大多数类型的组中都在增加。更大的持久性可能会影响地表气候异常，特别是与对社会和环境造成严重影响相关的热浪和冷浪的频率和严重性。在本文中，使用Hess-Brezowsky大型循环模式的目录和长期覆盖欧洲大部分地区的长期温度序列，研究了20世纪欧洲环流类型的持久性与极端地面气温异常之间的关系。大陆。确定了明显有利于热波和冷波的类型，温度异常与它们的持久性有关。结果表明，更持久的环流增加了整个区域极端温度的严重性，这对温暖而言比寒冷温度异常更为重要。循环模式的频率和停留时间的变化一直在支持近几十年来在欧洲观察到的暖极端温度的急剧上升趋势，并且流通变化也可能导致以下事实：冷极端温度的趋势不那么明显或不存在。在同一时期。研究结果还强调，在评估大气环流与地表气候之间的联系时，需要考虑环流类型的持久性及其频率。在全球变暖的背景下，由于与中纬度地区旋风活动减少以及风暴轨迹向北移动有关的更持久的环流，可能会加剧未来气候变化对极端温度事件的发生和严重程度的影响。

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