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Vemap Vs Vincera: A Dgvm Sensitivity To Differences In Climate Scenarios

机译：Vemap与Vincera：对气候情景差异的Dgvm敏感性

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摘要

The MC1 DGVM has been used in two international model comparison projects, VEMAP (Vegetation Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project) and VINCERA (Vulnerability and Impacts of North American forests to Climate Change: Ecosystem Responses and Adaptation). The latest version of MC1 was run on both VINCERA and VEMAP climate and soil input data to document how a change in the inputs can affect model outcome. We compared simulation results under the two sets of future climate scenarios and reported on how the different inputs can affect vegetation distribution and carbon budget projections. Under all future scenarios, the interior West becomes woodier as warmer temperatures and available moisture allow trees to get established in grasslands areas. Concurrently, warmer and drier weather causes the eastern deciduous and mixed forests to shift to a more open canopy woodland or savanna type while boreal forests disappear almost entirely from the Great Lakes area by the end of the 21st century. While under VEMAP scenarios the model simulated large increases in carbon storage in a future woodier West, the drier VINCERA scenarios accounted for large carbon losses in the east and only moderate gains in the West. But under all future climate scenarios, the total area burned by wildfires increased especially in C4 grasslands under all scenarios and in dry woodlands under VINCERA scenarios. The model simulated non-agricultural lands in the conterminous United States as a source of carbon in the 21st century under the VINCERA future climate scenarios but not VEMAP. However, the magnitude of this carbon source to the atmosphere could be greatly reduced if the CO_2 growth enhancement factor built in the model was enhanced but evidence that all mature forests across the entire country will respond positively to increased atmospheric CO2 is still lacking.
机译：MC1 DGVM已用于两个国际模型比较项目：VEMAP（植被生态系统建模和分析项目）和VINCERA（北美森林对气候变化的脆弱性和影响：生态系统的响应和适应）。 MC1的最新版本已在VINCERA和VEMAP气候和土壤输入数据上运行，以记录输入的变化如何影响模型结果。我们比较了两组未来气候情景下的模拟结果，并报告了不同的投入如何影响植被分布和碳预算预测。在所有未来情况下，随着温度升高和可用湿气允许在草原地区植树，西部的西部地区将变得更加木本。同时，气候变暖和干燥导致东部落叶和混交林转向更开放的冠层林地或热带稀树草原类型，而到21世纪末，北方森林几乎完全从大湖区消失。在VEMAP情景下，该模型模拟了在未来的木质林木中碳储量的大幅增加，而较干燥的VINCERA情景则说明了东部的大量碳损失和西部的适度增加。但是在所有未来气候情景下，野火燃烧的总面积增加，尤其是在所有情景下的C4草地和在VINCERA情景下的干旱林地。该模型在VINCERA未来气候情景下模拟了美国本土作为21世纪碳源的非农业土地，但未模拟VEMAP。但是，如果增强模型中建立的CO_2增长因子，则可以大大减少大气中碳源的数量，但仍缺乏证据表明全国所有成熟的森林都将对大气中CO2的增加做出积极反应。

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