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首页> 外文期刊>Global Business Review >Macroeconomic Determinants of Crude Oil Demand in Ghana
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Macroeconomic Determinants of Crude Oil Demand in Ghana

机译：加纳原油需求的宏观经济决定因素

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摘要

This article investigates the macroeconomic determinants of crude oil demand (consumption) in Ghana with annual data from 1980 to 2013. The study applied the vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the long-run and short-run determinants of crude oil demand in Ghana within the study period. The long-run estimates reveal that price of crude oil, real GDP per capita, real effective exchange rate and energy saving technical progress are significant long-run determinants of crude oil demand. The results also indicate that crude oil demand in Ghana is income and price inelastic. Crude oil price has a positive long-run effect indicating the virtual lack of substitutes and overdependence on crude oil for energy generation and economic activities in Ghana. Based on the variance decomposition and impulse response analyses, the study also found that positive shocks from real effective exchange rate had a dominant and positive impact on crude oil demand in Ghana. We suggest among others that Ghana vigorously explore alternative and sustainable energy sources to curtail the overdependence on crude oil, strategically hedge against volatilities in the exchange rate market, and revive the country’s oil refinery to refine her own crude oil to reduce importation.
机译：本文利用1980年至2013年的年度数据调查了加纳原油需求（消费量）的宏观经济决定因素。该研究应用矢量误差校正模型（VECM）估算了加纳原油需求的长期和短期决定因素。在研究期间加纳。长期估计显示，原油价格，人均实际GDP，实际有效汇率和节能技术进步是原油需求的重要长期决定因素。结果还表明，加纳的原油需求是收入和价格无弹性的。原油价格具有长期的积极影响，表明加纳的能源生产和经济活动实际上缺乏替代品，并且过度依赖原油。根据方差分解和冲激响应分析，研究还发现，实际有效汇率带来的积极冲击对加纳的原油需求具有主导和积极影响。我们建议，除其他外，加纳应积极探索替代能源和可持续能源，以减少对原油的过度依赖，从战略上对冲汇率市场中的波动，并复兴该国的炼油厂以提炼自己的原油以减少进口。

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