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首页> 外文期刊>Grey systems: theory and application >The forecast of cultivate land quantity based on Grey-Markov model: A case study of Jiangsu Province
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The forecast of cultivate land quantity based on Grey-Markov model: A case study of Jiangsu Province

机译：基于灰色马尔可夫模型的耕地数量预测-以江苏省为例

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to employ the Grey-Markov Chain Model for the scale prediction of cultivated land and took an empirical research with the case of Jiangsu province. Design/methodology/approach - Along with China's industrialization and urbanization accelerated, a large number of cultivated land converse into construction land. The change of utilization of cultivated land concerns national food security and sustainable development of economy and society. Due to the fact that the different investigation methods of arable land usually cause a uncertain. The Grey-Markov model combines the Grey GM(1,1) and Markov chain, with two advantages of dealing with poor information and long-term and volatile series. A numeric example of scale prediction of cultivated land in Jiangsu province is also computed in the third part of the paper. Findings - The results show that the Grey-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with GM (1,1), which is a reliable guarantee for the change of cultivated land resources. Practical implications - The forecast of cultivated land can provide useful information for the general land use planning. Originality/value - The paper confirmed the feasibility of the Grey-Markov model in scale prediction of cultivated land.
机译：目的-本文的目的是将灰色马尔可夫链模型用于耕地规模预测，并以江苏省为例进行实证研究。设计/方法/方法-随着中国工业化和城市化进程的加快，大量耕地转化为建设用地。耕地利用方式的变化关系到国家粮食安全和经济社会的可持续发展。由于耕地的不同调查方法通常会带来不确定性。 Grey-Markov模型将Grey GM（1,1）和Markov链结合在一起，具有处理较差信息以及长期波动性序列的两个优点。第三部分还计算了江苏省耕地规模预测的数值实例。发现-结果表明，与GM（1,1）相比，Grey-Markov链模型具有更高的预测准确性，这是耕地资源变化的可靠保证。实际意义-耕地的预测可以为总体土地使用规划提供有用的信息。原创性/价值-本文证实了灰色马尔可夫模型在耕地规模预测中的可行性。

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