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Bayesian Chance-Constrained Hydraulic Barrier Design under Geological Structure Uncertainty

机译：地质结构不确定性下的贝叶斯机会约束水力障碍设计

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摘要

The groundwater community has widely recognized geological structure uncertainty as a major source of model structure uncertainty. Previous studies in aquifer remediation design, however, rarely discuss the impact of geological structure uncertainty. This study combines chance-constrained (CC) programming with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a BMA-CC framework to assess the impact of geological structure uncertainty in remediation design. To pursue this goal, the BMA-CC method is compared with traditional CC programming that only considers model parameter uncertainty. The BMA-CC method is employed to design a hydraulic barrier to protect public supply wells of the Government St. pump station from salt water intrusion in the 1500-foot sand and the 1700-foot sand of the Baton Rouge area, southeastern Louisiana. To address geological structure uncertainty, three groundwater models based on three different hydrostratigraphic architectures are developed. The results show that using traditional CC programming overestimates design reliability. The results also show that at least five additional connector wells are needed to achieve more than 90% design reliability level. The total amount of injected water from the connector wells is higher than the total pumpage of the protected public supply wells. While reducing the injection rate can be achieved by reducing the reliability level, the study finds that the hydraulic barrier design to protect the Government St. pump station may not be economically attractive.
机译：地下水界已经广泛认识到地质结构不确定性是模型结构不确定性的主要来源。但是，先前有关含水层修复设计的研究很少讨论地质结构不确定性的影响。这项研究将机会约束（CC）程序与贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）作为BMA-CC框架相结合，以评估地质结构不确定性对修复设计的影响。为了实现这一目标，将BMA-CC方法与仅考虑模型参数不确定性的传统CC编程进行了比较。 BMA-CC方法用于设计液压屏障，以保护政府圣泵站的公共供应井，以防止盐水侵入路易斯安那州东南部巴吞鲁日地区的1500英尺和1700英尺的沙子。为了解决地质结构的不确定性，开发了基于三种不同水文地层学结构的三种地下水模型。结果表明，使用传统的CC编程会高估设计可靠性。结果还表明，至少需要另外五个连接器孔才能达到90％以上的设计可靠性水平。从连接器井中注入的水总量高于受保护的公共供水井的总抽水量。虽然可以通过降低可靠性来降低注入速度，但研究发现，用于保护政府圣泵站的液压屏障设计在经济上可能并不具有吸引力。

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  • 来源
    《Ground water》 |2015年第6期|908-919|共12页
  • 作者

    Chitsazan Nima; Pham Hai V.; Tsai Frank T. -C.;

  • 作者单位

    Louisiana State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA;

    Louisiana State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA;

    Louisiana State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA;

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