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Applied Stochastic Hydrogeology

机译：应用随机水文地质

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The subdiscipline of stochastic hydrogeology developed as a response to the natural variability of ground water systems, the great effort required to characterize that variability, and the fog of uncertainty that surrounds hydrogeological problems. Stochastic hydrogeology uses probability theory to account for the effects of variability and to quantify the uncertainty in predictions. The discipline flourished as a research area, particularly between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, and there is no doubt that it has altered the way that hydroge-ologists think about heterogeneity. While the research enterprise has pushed forward, the concrete impact of stochastic methods on the standard practice is less obvious. Lynn Gelhar, one of the leaders of the "stochastic revolution," opined in a talk at the Fall 2002 American Geophysical Union Meeting: "There have been major advances in theoretical and computational methodology, but the impact of these new methods and results in practical applications has been limited." Earlier that same year, Gedeon Dagan, another founding father, provided the assessment: "In parallel with a vigorous advance of the fundamentals, the stochastic approach has had a limited impact on modeling and management in hydrological practice." Though there may have been incrementally more acceptance of the stochastic approach since these comments were made, I believe that their general point still holds true today.
机译：随机水文地质学的子学科是对地下水系统自然变异性，表征该变异性所需的巨大努力以及围绕水文地质问题的不确定性迷雾的回应。随机水文地质学使用概率论来解释变异性的影响并量化预测中的不确定性。该学科作为研究领域蓬勃发展，特别是在1980年代中期至1990年代中期之间，毫无疑问，它改变了水文地质学家对异质性的思考方式。在研究企业不断前进的同时，随机方法对标准实践的具体影响并不明显。 “随机革命”的领导人之一林恩·格尔哈尔（Lynn Gelhar）在2002年秋季的美国地球物理联盟会议上的一次演讲中指出：“理论和计算方法已经取得了重大进展，但是这些新方法和结果的影响在实际中是非常重要的。申请受到限制。”同年早些时候，另一位开国元勋Gedeon Dagan提供了评估：“在基本面蓬勃发展的同时，随机方法对水文实践的建模和管理影响有限。”尽管自从发表这些评论以来，也许越来越多地接受了随机方法，但我认为它们的总体观点在今天仍然成立。

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