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首页> 外文期刊>Harmful Algae >Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part I: Description and validation of an operational forecasting model
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Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part I: Description and validation of an operational forecasting model

机译：西南爱尔兰的有害藻华预报系统。第一部分：运营预测模型的描述和验证

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A 3D primitive equation coastal ocean model for southwest Ireland, called the Bantry Bay model, was developed and implemented operationally. Validated model outputs have multiple uses. One of the incentives to develop the model was to explore the possible transport pathways that carry harmful algae blooms (HAB) into Bantry Bay. The model is nested offline in a regional North East Atlantic operational model. Surface forcing is taken from,the half-degree Global Forecasting System, available at three-hourly intervals. Heat fluxes are calculated from the bulk formulae. Surface freshwater fluxes are obtained from the prescribed rainfall rates and the evaporation rates calculated by the model. Freshwater discharges from five rivers are included in the model. Model validation and the model skill in representing the water level, currents, temperature and salinity in the bay are reported. A scoring system based on the average adjusted relative mean absolute error for the predicted currents was used. An upgrade to a higher score was achieved through the incorporation of local winds into the surface forcing and by varying the bottom roughness coefficient. The model, designed to work in forecast mode, can replicate the main oceanographic features in the region. The model forecast is used in a decision support system for HAB alerts. An operational HAB alert system did not exist in Ireland prior to the use of this model. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：爱尔兰西南部的3D原始方程式沿海海洋模型，称为Bantry Bay模型，已开发并投入运营。经过验证的模型输出具有多种用途。开发模型的动机之一是探索可能的运输途径，这些运输途径会将有害藻华（HAB）携带到Bantry湾。该模型离线嵌套在东北大西洋区域运营模型中。表面强迫来自半度全球预报系统，该系统每三个小时可用一次。热通量是根据本体公式计算的。从规定的降雨率和模型计算的蒸发率中获得地表淡水通量。该模型包括了来自五个河流的淡水排放。报告了模型验证和代表海湾水位，水流，温度和盐度的模型技巧。使用基于预测电流的平均调整相对平均绝对误差的评分系统。通过将局部风合并到表面强迫中并通过更改底部粗糙度系数，可以将分数提高到更高。该模型旨在以预报模式工作，可以复制该地区的主要海洋学特征。模型预测用于HAB警报的决策支持系统中。使用此模型之前，爱尔兰不存在可操作的HAB警报系统。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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