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Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

机译：有害藻华和气候变化：从过去和现在汲取教训以预测未来

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Climate change pressures will influence marine planktonic systems globally, and it is conceivable that harmful algal blooms may increase in frequency and severity. These pressures will be manifest as alterations in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, precipitation-induced nutrient inputs, and grazing, but absence of fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms frustrates most hope of forecasting their future prevalence. Summarized here is the consensus of a recent workshop held to address what currently is known and not known about the environmental conditions that favor initiation and maintenance of harmful algal blooms. There is expectation that harmful algal bloom (HAB) geographical domains should expand in some cases, as will seasonal windows of opportunity for harmful algal blooms at higher latitudes. Nonetheless there is only basic information to speculate upon which regions or habitats HAB species may be the most resilient or susceptible. Moreover, current research strategies are not well suited to inform these fundamental linkages. There is a critical absence of tenable hypotheses for how climate pressures mechanistically affect HAB species, and the lack of uniform experimental protocols limits the quantitative cross-investigation comparisons essential to advancement. A HAB "best practices" manual would help foster more uniform research strategies and protocols, and selection of a small target list of model HAB species or isolates for study would greatly promote the accumulation of knowledge. Despite the need to focus on keystone species, more studies need to address strain variability within species, their responses under multifactorial conditions, and the retrospective analyses of long-term plankton and cyst core data; research topics that are departures from the norm. Examples of some fundamental unknowns include how larger and more frequent extreme weather events may break down natural biogeographic barriers, how stratification may enhance or diminish HAB events, how trace nutrients (metals, vitamins) influence cell toxicity, and how grazing pressures may leverage, or mitigate HAB development. There is an absence of high quality time-series data in most regions currently experiencing HAB outbreaks, and little if any data from regions expected to develop HAB events in the future. A subset of observer sites is recommended to help develop stronger linkages among global, national, and regional climate change and HAB observation programs, providing fundamental datasets for investigating global changes in the prevalence of harmful algal blooms. Forecasting changes in HAB patterns over the next few decades will depend critically upon considering harmful algal blooms within the competitive context of plankton communities, and linking these insights to ecosystem, oceanographic and climate models. From a broader perspective, the nexus of HAB science and the social sciences of harmful algal blooms is inadequate and prevents quantitative assessment of impacts of future HAB changes on human wellbeing. These and other fundamental changes in HAB research will be necessary if HAB science is to obtain compelling evidence that climate change has caused alterations in HAB distributions, prevalence or character, and to develop the theoretical, experimental, and empirical evidence explaining the mechanisms underpinning these ecological shifts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：气候变化压力将在全球范围内影响海洋浮游系统，可以想象的是，有害藻华的发生频率和强度可能会增加。这些压力将表现为温度，分层，光照，海洋酸化，降水诱导的养分输入和放牧的变化，但缺乏驱动有害藻华的机理的基本知识，使人们对预测其未来流行率充满了希望。这里总结的是最近召开的研讨会的共识，该研讨会的目的是解决有关有利于有害藻华的引发和维持的环境条件的当前已知和未知情况。预计在某些情况下，有害藻华（HAB）的地理范围应扩大，高纬度地区有害藻华的季节性机会窗口也会增加。但是，只有基本信息可以推测HAB物种在哪些地区或生境中最有弹性或最易感。此外，当前的研究策略并不十分适合于告知这些基本联系。对于气候压力如何机械地影响HAB物种，目前尚缺乏可靠的假设，并且缺乏统一的实验方案也限制了对发展至关重要的定量交叉研究比较。 HAB的“最佳实践”手册将有助于培养更统一的研究策略和方案，选择少量的模型HAB物种或分离株进行研究的目标清单将极大地促进知识的积累。尽管需要重点关注基石种，但仍有更多研究需要解决种内菌株的变异性，多因素条件下它们的响应以及对长期浮游生物和囊肿核心数据的回顾性分析；研究主题偏离规范。一些基本未知因素的例子包括更大和更频繁的极端天气事件如何打破自然生物地理屏​​障，分层如何增强或减少HAB事件，微量营养素（金属，维生素）如何影响细胞毒性以及放牧压力如何发挥作用，或减轻HAB的发展。当前大多数发生HAB暴发的地区都缺乏高质量的时间序列数据，而来自未来有望发展HAB事件的地区的数据也很少。建议使用一个观察员站点子集，以帮助在全球，国家和地区气候变化与HAB观察计划之间建立更紧密的联系，从而为调查有害藻华发生率的全球变化提供基础数据集。预测未来几十年HAB模式的变化将主要取决于在浮游生物群落竞争环境中考虑有害藻华的发生，并将这些见解与生态系统，海洋学和气候模型联系起来。从更广泛的角度来看，HAB科学与有害藻华的社会科学之间的联系并不充分，并且无法量化评估未来HAB变化对人类福祉的影响。如果HAB科学要获得令人信服的证据表明气候变化已导致HAB分布，流行或性状发生变化，并发展出解释这些生态学基础机理的理论，实验和经验证据，则HAB研究中的这些及其他基本变化将是必要的。转移。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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