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首页> 外文期刊>Harmful Algae >Inductive reasoning and forecasting of population dynamics of Cylindrospermopsis radborskii in three sub-tropical reservoirs by evolutionary computation
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Inductive reasoning and forecasting of population dynamics of Cylindrospermopsis radborskii in three sub-tropical reservoirs by evolutionary computation

机译：基于进化计算的归纳推理和三个亚热带水生圆柏的种群动态预测

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Seven-day-ahead forecasting models of Cylindrospermopsis radborskii in three warm-monomictic and mesotrophic reservoirs in south-east Queensland have been developed by means of water quality data from 1999 to 2010 and the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA. Resulting models using all measured variables as inputs as well as models using electronically measurable variables only as inputs forecasted accurately timing of overgrowth of C. radborskii and matched well high and low magnitudes of observed bloom events with 0.45 ≤ r~2 ＞ 0.61 and 0.4 ≤ r~2 ＞ 0.57, respectively. The models also revealed relationships and thresholds triggering bloom events that provide valuable information on synergism between water quality conditions and population dynamics of C. radborskii. Best performing models based on using all measured variables as inputs indicated electrical conductivity (EC) within the range of 206-280 mS m~(-1) as threshold above which fast growth and high abundances of C. radborskii have been observed for the three lakes. Best models based on electronically measurable variables for the Lakes Wivenhoe and Somerset indicated a water temperature (WT) range of 25.5-32.7 ℃ within which fast growth and high abundances of C. radborskii can be expected. By contrast the model for Lake Samsonvale highlighted a turbidity (TURB) level of 4.8 NTU as indicator for mass developments of C. radborskii. Experiments with online measured water quality data of the Lake Wivenhoe from 2007 to 2010 resulted in predictive models with 0.61 ≤ r~2 ＞ 0.65 whereby again similar levels of EC and WT have been discovered as thresholds for outgrowth of C. radborskii. The highest validity of r~2 = 0.75 for an in situ data-based model has been achieved after considering time lags for EC by 7 days and dissolved oxygen by 1 day. These time lags have been discovered by a systematic screening of all possible combinations of time lags between 0 and 10 days for all electronically measurable variables. The so-developed model performs seven-day-ahead forecasts and is currently implemented and tested for early warning of C. radborskii blooms in the Wivenhoe reservoir.
机译：利用1999年至2010年的水质数据和混合进化算法HEA，建立了昆士兰东南部三个暖-经济和中营养储层的Cylindrospermopsis radborskii提前7天预报模型。使用所有测量变量作为输入的结果模型以及仅使用电子可测量变量作为输入的模型可以准确预测radborskii的过度生长时间，并能很好地匹配观测到的水华事件的高和低幅度，其中0.45≤r〜2＞ 0.61和0.4≤ r〜2＞ 0.57。该模型还揭示了引发开花事件的关系和阈值，这些事件和阈值提供了有关水质状况与拉德伯斯基种群动态之间协同作用的有价值的信息。基于使用所有测量变量作为输入的最佳性能模型，其电导率（EC）在206-280 mS m〜（-1）的范围内作为阈值，在该阈值之上，三个物种的C. radborskii均快速生长且丰度高湖泊。基于电子可测量变量的Lakes Wivenhoe和Somerset的最佳模型表明，水温（WT）范围为25.5-32.7℃，在此范围内可以预期C. radborskii的快速生长和高丰度。相比之下，萨姆森维尔湖模型的浊度（TURB）值为4.8 NTU，可作为radborskii藻大量繁殖的指标。使用在线测量的2007年至2010年的维文霍湖水质数据进行的实验得出的预测模型为0.61≤r〜2＞ 0.65，从而再次发现了相似的EC和WT水平作为radborskii藻生长的阈值。考虑到EC延迟7天和溶解氧延迟1天，对于基于数据的原位模型，r〜2 = 0.75的有效性最高。通过系统筛选所有电子可测量变量在0到10天之间的所有可能的时滞组合，发现了这些时滞。如此开发的模型可以进行为期7天的预测，并且目前正在实施和测试该模型，以对Wivenhoe水库中的radborskii绽放进行预警。

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