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Forecasting Of Environmental Risk Maps Of Coastal Algal Blooms

机译：沿海藻华环境风险图的预测

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摘要

We present the elements of an algal bloom risk forecast system which aims to provide a scientific prognosis of the likelihood of an algal bloom occurrence as a function of: (a) the nutrient concentration; and (b) the forecasted wind and tide-induced vertical mixing relative to the critical value defined by the environmental and algal growth conditions. The model is validated with high frequency field observations of algal blooms in recent years and only requires the input of readily available field measurements of water column transparency, nutrient concentration, representative maximum algal growth rate, and a simple estimate of vertical mixing as a function of tidal range, wind speed, and density stratification. The forecasted region-wide risk maps successfully predicted the observed algal bloom occurrences in Hong Kong waters over the past 20 years, with a correct prognosis rate of 87%. It is shown that algal blooms are to a large extent controlled by the interaction of physical and biological processes. This work provides a general framework to interpret the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of observed algal blooms, and paves the way for the development of real time algal bloom risk forecast systems.
机译：我们介绍了藻华风险预报系统的要素，该系统旨在根据藻华发生的可能性提供科学的预后，其依据为：（a）营养物浓度； （b）相对于由环境和藻类生长条件确定的临界值的风和潮汐引起的垂直混合预报。该模型已通过近年来对藻华的高频实地观测进行了验证，仅需输入水柱透明度，养分浓度，代表性最大藻类生长速率以及垂直混合随温度变化的简单估算等现成的现场测量数据即可。潮差，风速和密度分层。预测的整个地区风险图成功地预测了过去20年在香港水域中观察到的藻华发生情况，正确的预后率为87％。结果表明，藻华在很大程度上受到物理和生物过程相互作用的控制。这项工作为解释观察到的藻华的复杂时空动态提供了一个总体框架，为实时藻华风险预测系统的开发铺平了道路。

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