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首页> 外文期刊>Harmful Algae >Seawater temperature, Gambierdiscus spp. variability and incidence of ciguatera poisoning in French Polynesia
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Seawater temperature, Gambierdiscus spp. variability and incidence of ciguatera poisoning in French Polynesia

机译：海水温度，Gambierdiscus spp。法属波利尼西亚雪茄中毒的变异性和发生率

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In the context of global warming and climate change, ciguatera disease is put forward as an indicator of environmental disturbance. However, to validate this indicator, some unknown parameters such as the delay between environmental perturbation and outbreaks of ciguatera need to be investigated. The main goal of this study was to investigate the temporal link between the growth of Gambierdiscus spp., and one of its influencing factors and the declared cases of ciguatera disease in humans. Algal cell density and seawater temperature (SWT) were recorded monthly from February 1993 to December 2001 on the Atimaono barrier reef of Tahiti Island. Reports of ciguatera cases were obtained from three community health clinics near the study sites. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) shows: (1) SWT were positively associated with Gambierdiscus spp. growth at a lagtime of 13 and 17 months (p < 0.001); (2) Gambierdiscus spp. growth measured at a given time is related to a peak number of cases of ciguatera recorded 3 months after peak densities of this dinoflagellate (p < 0.001). These results allow the construction of a predictive model of the temporal link between ciguatera disease in humans and its etiologic agent: Gambierdiscus spp. This model constructed by using 1993-1999 data, then validated by 2000-2001 data, demonstrates an appreciable ability to predict changes in the incidence of ciguatera disease following algae blooms.
机译：在全球变暖和气候变化的背景下，提出了雪加病作为环境扰动的指标。但是，为了验证该指标，需要研究一些未知参数，例如环境扰动和小花蛾爆发之间的延迟。这项研究的主要目的是调查Gambierdiscus spp。的生长及其影响因素之一与人类雪茄病确诊病例之间的时间联系。从1993年2月至2001年12月，每月在塔希提岛的Atimaono堡礁记录藻类细胞密度和海水温度（SWT）。从研究地点附近的三个社区卫生诊所获得了雪茄病例的报告。自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA）显示：（1）SWT与Gambierdiscus spp正相关。滞后时间为13和17个月的生长（p <0.001）; （2）甘比氏菌属。在给定时间测量的生长与该鞭毛甲藻的峰值密度后3个月记录的雪茄病例的峰值数量有关（p <0.001）。这些结果允许构建人类雪茄病与其病原体：甘比氏菌属之间的时间联系的预测模型。该模型使用1993-1999年的数据构建，然后通过2000-2001年的数据进行验证，证明了预测藻类大量繁殖后雪茄病发病率变化的显着能力。

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