...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Human and ecological risk assessment >Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production: An integrated assessment in Iran
【24h】

Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production: An integrated assessment in Iran

机译：气候变化对未来枣椰生产的经济可行性的影响：伊朗的一项综合评估

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10 degrees, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450km(2) of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50km(2), respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.
机译：这项研究着手建立一个模型，该模型使用CLIMEX和六个参数确定可从枣椰子（Phoenix dactylifera）获得正净现值（NPV）的区域，这些参数包括（a）合适的土壤分类学和理化土壤性质，（b）坡度小于10度的土地，（c）适用于枣椰子种植的土地利用，（d）道路通行，（e）水的可用性，（f）由尖孢镰刀菌引起的致死性疾病的低风险f。 spp。在伊朗的2030、2050、2070和2100年。在这里，我们利用了A2情景和两个全球气候模型（GCM）：CSIRO-Mk3.0（CS）和MIROC-H（MR）。经济可行性是根据以下假设估算的：土地所有者决定种植枣椰树的动机是希望最大程度地增加土地收益。我们的结果表明，伊朗南部只有5450km（2）的区域种植椰枣才能实现高利润，NPV> 10,000，而盈利（NPV在4200和10,000之间）和中等盈利（NPV在0和4200之间）的地区将来分别仅覆盖500 km和50 km（2）。将两个选定的GCM的平均产量与经济和CLIMEX产量组合的平均产量进行比较，结果表明，两个GCM的面积中只有约0.01％具有高度经济可行性，可用于种植枣椰。在这项研究中，我们确保预测变得稳健，而不是产生假设性的发现，而仅仅局限于出版物。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号