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Methods for Communicating the Complexity and Uncertainty of Oil Spill Response Actions and Tradeoffs

机译：沟通溢油应急措施的复杂性和不确定性的方法

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摘要

Complexity and uncertainty influence opinions, beliefs, and decisions about health, safety, and other kinds of risk, as demonstrated in research on health, climate change, storm forecasts, pandemic disease, and in other domains. Drawing from this research, this article summarizes insights into how people understand and process uncertain or complex information and explores key oil spill and oil spill response-relevant issues regarding the communication of complexity and uncertainty-from the presentation of uncertainties around forecast parameters to the deployment of online oil spill response simulation tools. Recommended practices from this article include (a) to continue to develop and evaluate interactive Web-based oil spill response simulations to help users explore tradeoffs in response decisions, (b) to take how people simplify information into account in designing communications processes and products (and evaluate), (c) to provide numbers along with verbal probability descriptions, and (d) if using graphics, to communicate probability or uncertainty, using simple graphics and testing them, as effects may not be predictable and some kinds of graphics are easier to understand than others, depending on context, numeracy, and graphicacy.
机译：复杂性和不确定性会影响有关健康，安全和其他风险的观点，信念和决策，如有关健康，气候变化，风暴预报，大流行性疾病和其他领域的研究所示。本文基于这项研究，总结了人们如何理解和处理不确定或复杂信息的见解，并探讨了与复杂性和不确定性沟通有关的关键漏油和漏油响应相关问题-从围绕预测参数的不确定性到部署在线漏油响应模拟工具。本文推荐的做法包括（a）继续开发和评估基于Web的交互式溢油应急响应模拟，以帮助用户在应急决策中进行权衡；（b）在设计通信流程和产品时考虑人们如何简化信息（ （c）提供数字以及言语概率描述，以及（d）如果使用图形来传达概率或不确定性，请使用简单的图形并对其进行测试，因为效果可能无法预测并且某些图形更容易比其他人更了解，具体取决于上下文，计算和图形。

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