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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrological sciences journal >Estimation of the added value of using rainfall-runoff transformation and statistical models for seasonal streamflow forecasting
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Estimation of the added value of using rainfall-runoff transformation and statistical models for seasonal streamflow forecasting

机译：使用降雨-径流转换和统计模型进行季节性流量预报的增加值的估算

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摘要

Two methods for generating streamflow forecasts in a Sahelian watershed, the Sirba basin, were compared. The direct method used a linear relationship to relate sea-surface temperature to annual streamflow, and then disaggregated on a monthly time scale. The indirect method used a linear relationship to generate annual precipitation forecasts, a temporal disaggregation to generate daily precipitation and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to generate monthly streamflow. The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed using the coefficient of determination, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the Hit score, and their economic value was evaluated using the cost/loss ratio method. The results revealed that the indirect method was slightly more effective than the direct method. However, the direct method achieved higher economic value in the majority of cost/loss situations, allowed for predictions with longer lead times and required less information.
机译：比较了在萨尔赫勒河流域Sirba盆地产生流量预报的两种方法。直接方法使用线性关系将海面温度与年流量联系起来，然后按月时间范围分解。间接方法使用线性关系生成年度降水量预测，使用时间分解生成每日降水量，并使用SWAT（土壤和水评估工具）模型生成月流量。使用确定系数，Nash-Sutcliffe系数和命中分数评估预测的准确性，并使用成本/损失比方法评估其经济价值。结果表明，间接法比直接法更有效。但是，直接方法在大多数成本/损失情况下都实现了更高的经济价值，允许进行较长交货时间的预测并需要较少的信息。

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