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Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality of large semi-arid reservoirs in Brazil

机译:巴西大型半干旱水库水文变化对气候变化影响的评价

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This paper investigates climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semiarid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other land, 40% of multi-GCMs projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semiarid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions.
机译:本文调查了对巴西半干旱水库水文和水质的影响。提出了一种综合接近耦合气候,水文和水质模型。五个一般循环模型(GCMS)和两个将来的情况(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)用于预测。模拟表明,气候预测中的不确定性显着影响水文和水质产出。某些情况显示流流量和存储量的强劲减少。在另一块土地上,40%的多GCM投影指示储层富营养化。 SSP5-8.5下对水文和水质的影响比SSP2-4.5下更大。结果还表明,干旱事件可能会在气候变化下延长,主要在21世纪末为SSP5-8.5,并可显着增加总磷浓度。这表明热带半干旱水库可能比其他地区的气候变化的情景更容易受到富营养化。

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