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A bivariate trend analysis to investigate the effect of increasing urbanisation on flood characteristics

机译：二元趋势分析，研究城市化进程对洪灾特征的影响

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摘要

Flood frequency analyses are usually based on the assumption of stationarity, which might be unrealistic if changes in climate, land uses or urbanisation impact the study catchment. Moreover, most non-stationarity studies only focus on peak flows, ignoring other flood characteristics, In this study, the potential effect of increasing urbanisation on the bivariate relationship of peak flows and volumes is investigated in a case study in the northwest of England, consisting of an increasingly urbanised catchment and a nearby hydrologically and climatologically similar unchanged rural (control) catchment. The study is performed via Kendall's tau and copulas. Temporal trends are studied visually and by formal tests, considering variables individually and jointly. Bivariate joint return period curves associated with consecutive time periods are compared to understand the joint implications of such bivariate trends. Although no significant bivariate trends were detected, hydrologically relevant trends were found in the urbanised catchment.
机译：洪水频率分析通常基于平稳性的假设，如果气候，土地利用或城市化的变化影响了研究集水区，那么这可能是不现实的。此外，大多数非平稳性研究仅关注峰值流量，而忽略了其他洪水特征。在这项研究中，以英格兰西北部为例，研究了城市化进程对峰值流量与流量的二元关系的潜在影响，包括日益城市化的流域以及附近水文和气候相似的未改变的农村（控制）流域。这项研究是通过肯德尔的牛头和copulas进行的。通过单独和共同考虑变量的方式，通过视觉和正式测试研究时间趋势。比较与连续时间段关联的双变量联合返回周期曲线，以了解此类双变量趋势的联合含义。尽管未发现明显的双变量趋势，但在城市化集水区发现了与水文相关的趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2017年第4期|802-821|共20页
  • 作者

    Ana I.Requena; Maria Prosdocimi; Thomas R.Kjeldsen; Luis Mediero;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics,Energy and Environment,Technical University of Madrid,C/Profesor Aranguren s, 28040 Madrid,Spain;

    Centre for Ecology & Hydrology,Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford,Wallingford OX10 8BB,UK and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY,UK;

    Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering,University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY,UK;

    Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics,Energy and Environment,Technical University of Madrid,C/Profesor Aranguren s, 28040 Madrid,Spain;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    copulas; flood trends; Kendall's tau; urbanisation;

    机译：copulas;洪水趋势;肯德尔的牛头;城市化;

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