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A depth-duration-frequency analysis for short-duration rainfall events in England and Wales

机译：英格兰和威尔士短期降雨事件的深度-持续时间-频率分析

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摘要

This study presents a depth-duration-frequency (DDF) model, which is applied to the annual maxima of sub-hourly rainfall totals of selected stations in England and Wales. The proposed DDF model follows from the standard assumption that the block maxima are generalised extreme value (GEV) distributed. The model structure is based on empirical features of the observed data and the assumption that, for each site, the distribution of the rainfall maxima of all durations can be characterised by common lower bound and skewness parameters. Some basic relationships between the location and scale parameters of the GEV distributions are enforced to ensure that frequency estimates for different durations are consistent. The derived ddf curves give a good fit to the observed data. The rainfall depths estimated by the proposed model are then compared with the standard DDF models used in the United Kingdom. The proposed model performs well for the shorter return periods for which reliable estimates of the rainfall frequency can be obtained from the observed data, while the standard methods show more variable results. Although the standard methods used no or little sub-hourly data in their calibration, they give fairly reliable estimates for the estimated rainfall depths overall.
机译：这项研究提出了一个深度-持续时间-频率（DDF）模型，该模型适用于英格兰和威尔士选定站点的亚小时每小时总降雨量的最大值。所提出的DDF模型基于以下标准假设：块最大值是广义的极值（GEV）分布。该模型结构基于观测数据的经验特征，并假设每个站点的所有持续时间的降雨量最大值的分布都可以通过共同的下界和偏度参数来表征。强制执行GEV分布的位置和比例参数之间的一些基本关系，以确保不同持续时间的频率估算值保持一致。导出的ddf曲线与观察到的数据非常吻合。然后将所提出的模型估算的降雨深度与英国使用的标准DDF模型进行比较。所提出的模型对于较短的返回周期表现良好，对于该周期，可以从观测数据获得可靠的降雨频率估计，而标准方法则显示出更多的可变结果。尽管标准方法在校准中不使用或很少使用亚小时数据，但它们对整体估计的降雨深度给出了相当可靠的估计。

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