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首页> 外文期刊>Nordic hydrology >Assessing differences in snowmelt-dependent hydrologic projections using CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate forcing data for the western United States
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Assessing differences in snowmelt-dependent hydrologic projections using CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate forcing data for the western United States

机译：使用CMIP3和CMIP5气候强迫数据评估美国西部依赖融雪的水文预报

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摘要

Most recent climate change impact studies are using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections to replace older generation CMIP3 projections. Here we evaluate whether differences between projections based on comparable high emission pathways of a seven-member general circulation model CMIP3 versus CMIP5 ensemble change our understanding of the expected hydrologic impacts. This work focuses on the important snowmelt-dominated mountain runoff-generating regions of the western United States (WUS; Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Columbia River Basin (CRB), and Sierra Nevada (SN) Basins). Significant declines in snowmelt, and shifts in streamflow timing owing to warmer, wetter CMIP5 projections match or exceed those based on CMIP3 throughout the WUS. CMIP3- and CMIP5-based projections, while generally in agreement about hydroclimatic changes, differ in some important aspects for key regions. The most important is the UCRB, where CMlP5-based projections suggest increases in future streamflows. Comparable hydrologic projections result from similar underlying climate signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 output for the CRB and SN, suggesting that previous work completed in these basins based on CMIP3 projections is likely still useful. However, UCRB hydrologic projections based on CMIP5 output suggest that a re-evaluation of future impacts on water resources is warranted.
机译：最新的气候变化影响研究正在使用耦合模型比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的预测来代替老一代CMIP3的预测。在这里，我们评估了基于七人总体环流模型CMIP3与CMIP5集合的可比较高排放路径的预测之间的差异是否会改变我们对预期水文影响的理解。这项工作的重点是美国西部重要的融雪为主的山区径流产生地区（WUS；上科罗拉多河盆地（UCRB），哥伦比亚河盆地（CRB）和内华达山脉（SN）盆地）。在整个WUS中，由于温暖，潮湿的CMIP5预测达到或超过了基于CMIP3的预测，导致融雪量显着下降，并且流量时间变化。基于CMIP3和CMIP5的预测虽然总体上与水文气候变化一致，但在关键地区的一些重要方面有所不同。最重要的是UCRB，其中基于CM1P5的预测表明未来流量增加。可比的水文预测来自CRB和SN的CMIP3和CMIP5输出中类似的基础气候信号，这表明基于CMIP3预测在这些盆地中完成的先前工作可能仍然有用。但是，基于CMIP5输出的UCRB水文预测表明，有必要对未来对水资源的影响进行重新评估。

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  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2016年第2期|483-500|共18页
  • 作者

    Darren L. Ficklin; Sally L. Letsinger; Iris T. Stewart; Edwin P. Maurer;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Geography, Indiana University, 701. E. Kirkwood Ave., Bloomington, IN 47405, USA,Center for Geospatial Data Analysis, Indiana Geological Survey, 611 N. Walnut Grove, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA;

    Center for Geospatial Data Analysis, Indiana Geological Survey, 611 N. Walnut Grove, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA;

    Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara University, 500 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA;

    Civil Engineering Department Santa Clara University, 500 El Camino Real, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; CMIP3; CMIP5; hydrology; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); western United States;

    机译：气候变化;CMIP3;CMIP5;水文学土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）;美国西部;

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