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A comparative study of different objective functions to improve the flood forecasting accuracy

机译：不同目标函数提高洪水预报精度的比较研究

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摘要

In the calibration of flood forecasting models, different objective functions and their combinations could lead to different simulation results and affect the flood forecast accuracy. In this paper, the Xinanjiang model was chosen as the flood forecasting model and shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm was used to calibrate the model. The performance of different objective functions and their combinations by using the aggregated distance measure in calibrating flood forecasting models was assessed and compared. And the impact of different thresholds of the peak flow in the objective functions was discussed and assessed. Finally, a projection pursuit method was proposed to composite the four evaluation indexes to assess the performance of the flood forecasting model. The results showed that no single objective function could represent all the characteristics of the shape of the hydrograph simultaneously and significant trade-offs existed among different objective functions. The results of different thresholds of peak flow indicated that larger thresholds of peak flow result in good performance of peak flow at the expense of bad simulation in other aspects of hydrograph. The evaluation results of the projection pursuit method verified that it can be a potential choice to synthesize the performance of the multiple evaluation indexes.
机译：在洪水预报模型的标定中，不同的目标函数及其组合可能导致不同的模拟结果并影响洪水预报的准确性。本文选择新安江模型作为洪水预报模型，并采用混洗复杂演化算法（SCE-UA）对模型进行标定。评估并比较了在校准洪水预报模型中使用聚合距离测度得出的不同目标函数及其组合的性能。讨论并评估了峰值流量的不同阈值对目标函数的影响。最后，提出了一种投影寻踪方法，将四个评估指标进行组合，以评估洪水预报模型的性能。结果表明，没有一个目标函数可以同时代表水文图形形状的所有特征，不同目标函数之间存在重大折衷。不同的峰值流量阈值的结果表明，较大的峰值流量阈值导致峰值流量性能良好，但以水文图其他方面的不良模拟为代价。投影寻踪方法的评估结果证明，综合多个评估指标的性能可能是一种潜在选择。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2016年第4期|718-735|共18页
  • 作者

    Meng-Xuan Jie; Hua Chen; Chong-Yu Xu; Qiang Zeng; Xin-e Tao;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China,Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    flood forecasting; multi-objective functions; projection pursuit; single objective function; threshold of peak flow;

    机译：洪水预报;多目标功能;投射追求;单一目标函数;峰值流量阈值;

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