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首页> 外文期刊>Nordic hydrology >A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin
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A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin

机译：一种SWAT建模方法，用于评估印度河盆地下车纳布运河地区气候变化对消费用水的影响

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摘要

Accurate assessment of spatio-temporal variations of consumptive water use (CWU) in large irrigation schemes is crucial for several hydrological applications. This study is designed to evaluate the impact of climate change on CWU in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) irrigation scheme of the Indus basin irrigation system of Pakistan. A distributed hydrological model, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), was spatially calibrated (2005-2009) and validated (2010-2012) for monthly CWU. The estimated CWU using the SWAT model showed promising results (the coefficient of determination (R~2) = 0.87 ± 0.06, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) = 0.83 ± 0.06)) when compared with CWU determined by the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm (SEBAL) (R~2 = 0.87 ± 0.06, NSE = 0.83 ± 0.06). Future evaluation, performed by considering the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, showed that changes in temperature and rainfall would significantly influence the CWU in the LCC scheme. Compared with the reference period, annual water consumption in the basin would increase overall by 7% and 11% at the end of 2020 with monthly variations of -40% to 60% and -17% to 80% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. The water managers in the region have to consider this fluctuating consumptive use in water allocation plans due to climate change for better management of available water resources.
机译：在大型灌溉计划中，准确评估耗水量（CWU）的时空变化对于几种水文应用至关重要。这项研究旨在评估巴基斯坦印度河盆地灌溉系统下切纳布运河（LCC）灌溉计划中气候变化对CWU的影响。对分布式水文模型，土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）进行了空间校准（2005-2009年），并对其进行了验证（2010-2012年）以进行每月CWU。与通过表面能平衡算法确定的CWU相比，使用SWAT模型估算的CWU显示出令人鼓舞的结果（确定系数（R〜2）= 0.87±0.06，Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率（NSE）= 0.83±0.06） （SEBAL）（R〜2 = 0.87±0.06，NSE = 0.83±0.06）。通过考虑代表性的浓度途径（RCP）4.5和8.5气候变化情景进行的未来评估显示，温度和降雨的变化将显着影响LCC计划中的CWU。与参考期相比，流域的年用水量到2020年底总体将增长7％和11％，在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5气候下，月度变化为-40％至60％和-17％至80％分别更改方案。由于气候变化，该地区的水管理者必须在用水分配计划中考虑这种波动的消费用途，以便更好地管理可用水资源。

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  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2016年第5期|1025-1037|共13页
  • 作者

    Usman Khalid Awan; Umar Waqas Liaqat; Minha Choi; Ali Ismaeel;

  • 作者单位

    International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 15 Khalid Abu Dalbouh St, Abdoon EShamali, PO BOX 950764, Amman, Jordan;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Republic of Korea;

    Water Resources and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Department of Water Resources, Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan University, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon 440-746, Republic of Korea;

    International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 15 Khalid Abu Dalbouh St, Abdoon EShamali, PO BOX 950764, Amman, Jordan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    actual evapotranspiration; canal command area; climate change; SEBAL; SWAT;

    机译：实际蒸散量;运河指挥区;气候变化;SEBAL;扑打;

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