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首页> 外文期刊>Nordic hydrology >Application of a distributed catchment model to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change within Poyang Lake catchment (China)
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Application of a distributed catchment model to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change within Poyang Lake catchment (China)

机译：应用分布式流域模型调查to阳湖流域内气候变化的水文影响（中国）

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摘要

The extreme cycles of flood and drought in the Poyang Lake catchment (China) place immense pressure on the region's water users and ecosystems. This study examines potential impacts of future climate change in the Poyang Lake catchment using the popular regional climate model, COSMO-CLM, and a distributed hydrological model, WATLAC. Near-future projections (2016-2035) indicate that the mean annual precipitation and temperature are expected to increase over the catchment, with the exception of some northern regions. Relative to the baseline period (1986-2005), the monthly mean precipitation is projected to increase in spring, summer and autumn (March-October), and to decrease in winter (November-February), with the most significant changes in September (62%) and January (-39%). Projected increases in monthly mean temperatures range from 0.3 to 1.4 ℃, 0.2 to 0.7 ℃, and 0.2 to 1.2 ℃ for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Winter temperatures are expected to increase significantly regardless of the climate scenarios. WATLAC simulations indicate that future climate changes will lead to increased high flows in summer and reduced low flows in winter, in terms of both frequency and magnitude, suggesting a high likelihood of an increase in frequency and severity of flooding and droughts in the Poyang Lake catchment.
机译：the阳湖流域（中国）的极端干旱和干旱周期给该地区的用水户和生态系统带来了巨大压力。这项研究使用流行的区域气候模型COSMO-CLM和分布式水文模型WATLAC研究了Po阳湖流域未来气候变化的潜在影响。近期预测（2016-2035年）表明，除北部一些地区外，预计流域的年均降水量和温度将增加。相对于基准期（1986-2005年），预计春季，夏季和秋季（3月至10月）的月平均降水量增加，冬季（11月至2月）的月平均降水量减少，9月的最大变化（ 62％）和一月（-39％）。对于代表性浓度路径（RCP）气候情景RCP2.6、4.5和8.5，预计每月平均温度分别升高0.3至1.4℃，0.2至0.7℃和0.2至1.2℃。无论气候如何，冬季温度预计都会大大增加。 WATLAC模拟表明，未来的气候变化将在频率和幅度方面导致夏季高流量增加，冬季低流量减少，这表明Po阳湖流域洪涝和干旱的频率和严重性增加的可能性很大。

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  • 来源
    《Nordic hydrology》 |2016年第1期|120-135|共16页
  • 作者

    Y. L. Li; H. Tao; J. Yao; Q. Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 73 East Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008, China;

    Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 73 East Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008, China;

    Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 73 East Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008, China;

    Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 73 East Beijing Road, Nanjing 210008, China,Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, 99 Ziyang Road, Nanchang 330022. China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change scenarios; hydrological model; poyang lake catchment; regional climate model; river discharge;

    机译：气候变化情景;水文模型阳湖流域区域气候模式;河水排放;

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