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A minimalist model of terminal lakes: Qinghai Lake (China) and Lake Chad (N Africa)

机译：终极湖泊的极简主义模型：青海湖（中国）和乍得湖（非洲北部）

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摘要

The ratio of the areas of a terminal lake to its total basin provides a geomorphological measure, which characterises the geobotanical state of water limited climates. A minimalist model of this lake area ratio is introduced combining the water balances of lake and land, the Budyko-Schreiber rainfall-runoff chain over land and, as a closure, the land and lake potential evaporation to be of similar magnitude. The following results are analysed. (ⅰ) Model diagnostics quantify a dryness threshold separating water from energy limited climate regimes, which coincides with an upper bound for the area ratio of terminal lakes to remain hydrologically closed. (ⅱ) Model validations for Qinghai Lake and Lake Chad demonstrate model and observed water flux budgets to be in close agreement. (ⅲ) Finally, a paleo-climate sensitivity study for Lake Chad demonstrates that the minimalist model appears to be a viable tool for future and paleo-climate estimates based on lake area ratio changes only and a single reference water flux. Furthermore, a stochastic interpretation of the rainfall-runoff chain allows estimates of water flux variability.
机译：终端湖面积与其总流域面积之比提供了一种地貌学测量方法，该方法表征了水受限气候的植物学状态。引入了该湖泊面积比的极简模型，该模型结合了湖泊和土地的水平衡，土地上的Budyko-Schreiber降雨径流链以及作为闭合的土地和湖泊的潜在蒸发量。分析以下结果。 （ⅰ）模型诊断程序量化了将水与能量有限的气候体制分开的干燥阈值，该阈值与终末湖泊保持水文封闭的面积比的上限一致。 （ⅱ）对青海湖和乍得湖的模型验证表明，模型和观测到的水通量预算非常吻合。 （ⅲ）最后，对乍得湖的古气候敏感性研究表明，极简模型似乎是仅基于湖泊面积比变化和单一参考水通量进行未来和古气候估计的可行工具。此外，对降雨径流链的随机解释可以估算水通量的变化性。

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