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Drought analysis in southern Paraguay, Brazil and northern Argentina: regionalization, occurrence rate and rainfall thresholds

机译:巴拉圭南部,巴西和阿根廷北部的干旱分析:区域划分,发生率和降雨阈值

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摘要

The objective of the present study is to characterize the drought occurrences in a region comprising Paraguay, southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. To recognize the drought occurrences the standardized precipitation index at the time-scales of 3 and 6 months was applied to the rainfall records from 1961 to 2011 at 51 rain gauges located in that region. After a drought regionalization using principal component analysis, a new approach, the Kernel occurrence rate estimation method coupled with bootstrap confidence band was used to quantify yearly drought occurrence rates. The study also includes the results of an additional and new approach based on rainfall threshold surfaces aimed at recognizing and monitoring the drought occurrence at the early stages of their development. For both time-scales, the study allowed identification of some spatial homogeneous regions regarding the severe droughts. In some of those regions, trends in the severe drought frequency occurrence were identified. The rainfall threshold surfaces, besides providing an adequate interpretation of the meaning of the standard precipitation index, can be quite easily and reliably utilized to identify the drought episodes.
机译:本研究的目的是描述巴拉圭,巴西南部和阿根廷东北部地区的干旱发生情况。为了识别干旱的发生,在1961年至2011年该地区的51个雨量计的降雨记录中采用了3个月和6个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数。在使用主成分分析对干旱进行区域划分之后,采用了一种新方法,即,将内核发生率估计方法与自举置信带结合使用,以量化年度干旱发生率。该研究还包括基于降雨阈值表面的另一种新方法的结果,该方法旨在识别和监测干旱发展早期的干旱情况。对于这两个时间尺度,研究都允许确定有关严重干旱的一些空间均匀区域。在其中一些地区,确定了严重干旱发生频率的趋势。降雨阈值表面除了可以充分解释标准降水指数的含义外,还可以非常容易和可靠地用于识别干旱事件。

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