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Temporal variation of spring flood in rivers of the Baltic states

机译：波罗的海国家河流春季洪水的时间变化

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摘要

Extreme floods can be caused by various combinations of hydrological and meteorological factors and river basin conditions that have not been observed for a long time. Long-term observational series permit estimation of both the frequency and variation of spring floods - the key issues of protection systems. Fortunately, Baltic States have a long-term record of hydrological data for the last 80 years. In this research, spring flood parameters (maximum discharge, height of maximum discharge and its timing) for the Baltic countries were assessed for four periods (1922-2008,1941-2008,1961-2008 and 1991-2008). In total, 70 hydrological data series of spring flood parameters were used. To detect trends in time series for these periods, the Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen's method for the magnitude of the trend were used. The index flood method was used to estimate the maximum discharge in ungauged catchments. The results showed that maximum discharges and heights of spring floods decreased over a longer period. Spring flood peaks took place on earlier dates. Only some significant trends of maximum discharges and their timing were found in the last time period (1991-2008). All these changes could be caused by the increasing ambient temperature and precipitation in the later decades.
机译：水文和气象因素以及流域状况长期以来未曾观察到的各种组合都可能导致极端洪灾。长期的观测序列可以估算春季洪水的频率和变化，这是保护系统的关键问题。幸运的是，波罗的海国家在过去80年中拥有长期的水文数据记录。在这项研究中，波罗的海国家的春季洪水参数（最大流量，最大流量高度及其时间）被评估了四个时期（1922-2008、1941-2008、1961-2008和1991-2008）。总共使用了70个春季洪水参数水文数据系列。为了检测这些时期的时间序列趋势，使用了Mann-Kendall检验和趋势量的非参数Sen方法。指数洪水法被用来估计未覆盖流域的最大排放量。结果表明，较长时期内最大洪水流量和春季洪水高度下降。春季洪水高峰发生在较早的日期。在最后一个时间段（1991-2008年）中，仅发现了最大排放量及其时间的一些重要趋势。所有这些变化可能是由于近几十年来环境温度升高和降水增加所致。

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