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Application of flow variability analysis to identify impacts of agricultural land-use change on the River Axe, southwest England

机译:应用流量变异性分析确定农业土地利用变化对英格兰西南部艾克斯河的影响

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Flow variability analysis based on the annual number and duration of pulses above flow thresholds has been used to identify potential impacts of agricultural land-use change on the River Axe catchment (288.5 km2). The analysis shows significant trend and step changes in runoff response which coincide both with changes in land use and management and with changes in rainfall amount and intensity. The effects of climatic variability are taken into account by regression analysis; residuals from regression continue to show a trend which is ascribed to land-use change. Seasonal analysis indicates that the winter season has the greatest change in runoff response but little change in rainfall, In contrast, the summer season shows little change in runoff response but altered rainfall frequency. The success of flow variability methods in identifying trends and the sources of trends in the runoff response on the Axe catchment indicates the potential of the methods for more general application for the development of flood risk management policies based on land-use and management.
机译:基于年度流量阈值以上脉冲的年度数量和持续时间的流量变异性分析已被用于识别农业土地利用变化对艾克斯河流域(288.5平方公里)的潜在影响。分析表明,径流响应出现了显着的趋势和阶跃变化,这与土地利用和管理的变化以及降雨量和强度的变化都一致。回归分析考虑了气候变化的影响;回归的残差继续显示出归因于土地利用变化的趋势。季节性分析表明,冬季的径流响应变化最大,而降雨变化很小。相反,夏季的径流响应变化很小,但降雨频率发生了变化。流量可变性方法在确定流域径流响应的趋势和趋势来源方面的成功经验表明,该方法在基于土地利用和管理的洪水风险管理政策制定中具有更广泛的应用潜力。

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