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A formal statistical model for pooled analysis of extreme floods

机译：用于对特大洪水进行汇总分析的正式统计模型

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This paper describes a formal statistical model underlying the region-of-influence method routinely used in regional frequency analysis of hydrological extremes, and is an improvement to the existing Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) method for pooled frequency analysis of annual maximum flows in the UK. Specification of a pooling-group method requires three issues to be resolved: how to define hydrological similarity, the size of pooling groups and calculation of the pooled L-moment ratios. Because these issues are interrelated, an exploratory and iterative study has been undertaken before arriving at the final version of the method. Improvements provided by the model are: (1) that it allows an increased weight to be given to a gauged catchment when it is itself the target location and (2) it does not require identification of a homogeneous region, since the expected differences between the L-moment ratios within a pooling group are explicitly accounted for. Using annual maximum series from 602 gauged rural catchments, a comparison of candidate methods shows that the new method performs better than these others, including the FEH method. While the numerical comparison suggests that the improvement is 4%, and thus only minor, arguments are given for why this is a misleading conclusion
机译：本文介绍了一种正式的统计模型，该模型基于通常用于水文极端事件区域频率分析的影响区域方法，是对英国现有的洪水估算手册（FEH）方法的改进，该方法用于英国年度最大流量的集中频率分析。合并组方法的规范需要解决三个问题：如何定义水文相似性，合并组的大小以及合并L矩比的计算。由于这些问题是相互关联的，因此在得出该方法的最终版本之前已进行了探索性和反复的研究。该模型提供的改进是：（1）当测量的集水区本身是目标位置时，它可以增加被测集水区的重量；（2）不需要识别同质区域，这是因为模型之间的预期差异。明确考虑池化组内的L矩比。使用来自602个标定农村流域的年度最大序列，对候选方法的比较表明，新方法的性能优于其他方法，包括FEH方法。尽管数值比较表明改进幅度为4％，因此仅是很小的幅度，但给出了为什么这是一个误导性结论的论点。

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