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Assessment of drought across central Sudan using UNEP dryness ratio

机译：使用环境署干旱率评估苏丹中部的干旱

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摘要

The objective of this paper is to improve our perception of drought in central Sudan. This has been realized by detailing the changes that occurred in the dryness ratio (rainfall/potential evapotranspiration) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) during the period 1941-2005. Eight representative stations of the area were selected and their dryness ratios examined on annual and monthly bases. A trend towards intensifying and more recurrent drought has been found. This trend is particularly significant in the arid areas. Statistically significant increase in areal coverage of drought has occurred. Substantial changes took place in the severity and frequency of drought between 1941-1970 and 1971-2005 over the whole area. Moreover, the early to mid-1970s, mid-1980s, early 1990s and early 2000s were determined as common drought years and were among the driest 10 years. The analysis also revealed high and generally increasing inter-annual variability of the dryness ratio. There is not a dominant short-term persistence in the data, as assessed by the lag-one serial correlation coefficient. Early forecast of the moisture condition during the rest of the season could merely be accomplished at small scale in the area. These results indicate that drought in the study area is irregular.
机译：本文的目的是改善我们对苏丹中部干旱的认识。通过详细说明1941-2005年期间联合国环境规划署（环境署）的干燥率（降雨/潜在蒸散量）发生的变化，可以实现这一点。选择了该地区的八个代表性站点，并以年和月为基准检查了它们的干燥率。已经发现干旱加剧和更加频繁的趋势。这种趋势在干旱地区尤为明显。从统计上看，干旱地区的覆盖面显着增加。在整个地区，1941年至1970年至1971年至2005年之间，干旱的严重程度和发生频率发生了重大变化。而且，1970年代初至1980年代中期，1980年代中期，1990年代初和2000年代初被确定为普通干旱年，是最干旱的10年之一。分析还表明，干燥率的年际变化很大，并且通常在增加。通过滞后一序列相关系数评估，数据中没有显着的短期持久性。对该季节剩余时间的湿度状况的早期预测只能在该地区进行小规模的完成。这些结果表明研究区域的干旱是不规则的。

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  • 来源
    《Hydrology research》 |2009年第5期|481-494|共14页
  • 作者

    Nadir Ahmed Elagib;

  • 作者单位

    College of water and Environmental Engineering, Sudan University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 352, 133n Khartoum North, Sudan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    arid and semi-arid zones; drought; sudan; UNEP dryness ratio;

    机译：干旱和半干旱地区;干旱;苏丹;环境署干度比率;

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