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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology research >Impacts of projected climate change on the thermodynamics of a shallow and a deep lake in Finland: model simulations and Bayesian uncertainty analysis
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Impacts of projected climate change on the thermodynamics of a shallow and a deep lake in Finland: model simulations and Bayesian uncertainty analysis

机译：预计的气候变化对芬兰浅湖和深湖热力学的影响：模型模拟和贝叶斯不确定性分析

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摘要

A lake model (MyLake) has been used to simulate the impacts of the projected future (2071-2100) climate on the thermodynamic properties of a shallow and a deep lake in Finland. The model has been calibrated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The model results show, among others, that the largest change in water temperature in a projected future climate occurs in April-May when a 4.6-7.6℃ increase in epilimnion and 2.7-4.4℃ increase in whole-lake monthly mean temperature occurs compared to the climate of 1961-1990. This corresponds to a large decrease in the probability of ice cover in March-April. In winter and early spring a negative correlation was obtained between lake water and air temperatures in a projected future climate due to the thermal buffering feature of the lake ice and snow cover. The uncertainties connected to the choice of the general circulation model and the boundary condition forcing for the regional atmospheric climate model were often significantly larger than the uncertainties connected to MyLake model parameter values.
机译：湖泊模型（MyLake）已用于模拟预计的未来（2071-2100）气候对芬兰浅水湖和深水湖热力学特性的影响。该模型已使用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）模拟方法进行了校准。该模型的结果表明，除其他外，在预计的未来气候中，水温的最大变化发生在4月至5月，与上年相比，epi水的上升幅度为4.6-7.6℃，全湖月平均温度的升高幅度为2.7-4.4℃。 1961-1990年的气候。这对应于三月至四月的冰盖可能性大大降低。在冬季和初春，由于湖泊冰雪覆盖的热缓冲特性，在未来的预计气候中，湖水与气温之间呈负相关。与一般循环模型的选择和区域大气气候模型的强迫边界条件有关的不确定性通常远大于与MyLake模型参数值有关的不确定性。

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  • 来源
    《Hydrology research》 |2009年第3期|234-248|共15页
  • 作者

    Tuomo M. Saloranta; Martin Forsius; Marko Jaervinen; Lauri Arvola;

  • 作者单位

    Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Gaustadalleen 21, Oslo N-0349, Norway;

    Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), PO Box 140, Helsinki FI-00251, Finland;

    Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), PO Box 140, Helsinki FI-00251, Finland;

    Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Paeaejaerventie 320, Lammi FI-16900, Finland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; lake thermodynamics; markov chain monte carlo; modelling;

    机译：气候变化;湖泊热力学马可夫链蒙特卡洛;造型;

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