首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology research >Modelling future NO_3 leaching from an upland headwater catchment in SW Norway using the MAGIC model: ll. Simulation of future nitrate leaching given scenarios of climate change and nitrogen deposition
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Modelling future NO_3 leaching from an upland headwater catchment in SW Norway using the MAGIC model: ll. Simulation of future nitrate leaching given scenarios of climate change and nitrogen deposition

机译:使用MAGIC模型来模拟挪威西南部高地源流域未来NO_3的淋洗。在气候变化和氮沉降情景下模拟未来硝酸盐的淋洗

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Future nitrate (NO_3) leaching to surface water at an upland heathland catchment, Oygardsbekken, southwestern Norway, was simulated using the MAGIC model with monthly time steps. Oygardsbekken has high nitrogen (N) load and exhibits seasonally elevated NO_3 leaching. Future estimates for temperature, precipitation and N deposition were implemented. The climate scenarios were based on dynamically downscaled data from the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCAO) driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, A2 and B2, and run with two global climate models, HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 from the Hadley Center and Max Planck Institute, respectively. Estimates of future rates of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) processes in the catchment were based on the downscaled temperature scenarios and two different storylines, one assuming changes only in soil processes (mineralisation N, decomposition C, plant N uptake, N immobilisation, litterfall N) due to future warming and N deposition (SLsoil), and the other assuming changes in both vegetation (plant N uptake and litterfall C/N ratio) and soil processes (SLsoil+veg). Compared to the present, MAGIC simulated higher future NO_3 leaching for both storylines with much higher rates for SLsoil. The results suggest that differences between the two storylines were larger than differences between the different scenarios within each storyline. For the scenarios with the highest future leaching rates the pronounced seasonal NO_3 pattern levelled out, while for the scenarios with moderate projected NO_3 leaching the seasonal pattern prevailed but was skewed towards highest leaching during spring rather than in winter as at present.
机译:使用MAGIC模型模拟了挪威西南部Oygardsbekken高地荒地流域未来向地面水中渗出的硝酸盐(NO_3)。 Oygardsbekken的氮(N)含量高,并且表现出季节性升高的NO_3浸出。实施了对温度,降水和氮沉降的未来估算。气候情景基于罗斯比中心区域气候模型(RCAO)的动态缩减数据,该数据由两种温室气体排放情景A2和B2驱动,并与Hadley中心的两种全球气候模型HadAM3和ECHAM4 / OPYC3一起运行。马克斯·普朗克研究所。对该流域未来氮(N)和碳(C)进程的未来速率的估算是基于缩小的温度情景和两个不同的故事情节,其中一个仅假设土壤过程发生变化(矿化氮,分解碳,植物氮吸收,氮固定化) ,凋落物N)是由于未来的变暖和氮沉降(SLsoil),而另一个假设是植被(植物N吸收量和凋落物C / N比)和土壤过程(SLsoil + veg)都发生了变化。与目前相比,MAGIC模拟了两个故事情节未来更高的NO_3淋洗率,而SL土壤的淋洗率要高得多。结果表明,两个故事情节之间的差异大于每个故事情节中不同场景之间的差异。对于未来浸出率最高的情景,明显的季节性NO_3模式趋于平稳,而对于中等预估的NO_3浸出的场景,季节性模式占主导,但在春季而不是目前偏向于最高浸出。

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