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The Effect Of Climate Change On Design Floods Of High Hazard Dams In Finland

机译：气候变化对芬兰高危水坝设计洪水的影响

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The effects of climate change on design floods of high hazard dams were studied in Finland. Design floods were calculated with model simulation methods where design precipitation was combined with 40 years of weather data. The combination of design precipitation and baseline weather that produced the largest flood was researched and this flood was used as the design flood of the dam with a return period of 5,000-10,000 years. Design floods were first simulated for the baseline period (1961-2000) and for a future period (2070-2100) and these two floods were compared. The baseline temperatures and precipitations were changed with delta-change approach using five climate scenarios for 2070-2100 and the design precipitation was changed according to two projections. Of the 34 dams included in this study, the effect of climate change varied depending on the location of the dam, the type of the basin and the primary cause of the flood. In northern Finland, where the simulated design floods were mainly caused by spring snowmelt, the design floods did not change significantly. In southern and western Finland, the design floods were mostly summer floods which increased mainly due to the increase in the design precipitation.
机译：在芬兰研究了气候变化对高危水坝设计洪水的影响。设计洪水是通过模型模拟方法计算的，其中设计降水与40年的天气数据相结合。研究了产生最大洪水的设计降水和基准天气的组合，并将该洪水用作大坝的设计洪水，其回收期为5,000-10,000年。首先对基准期（1961-2000年）和未来期（2070-2100年）的设计洪水进行了模拟，并对这两次洪水进行了比较。在2070年至2100年的五个气候情景下，采用三角洲变化法更改了基线温度和降水，并根据两个预测对设计降水进行了更改。在这项研究中包括的34座水坝中，气候变化的影响取决于水坝的位置，流域的类型和洪水的主要原因。在芬兰北部，模拟设计洪水主要是由春季融雪引起的，设计洪水没有明显变化。在芬兰南部和西部，设计洪水主要是夏季洪水，这主要是由于设计降水的增加。

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