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Assessment of observed and simulated low flow indices for a highly managed river basin

机译：对高度管理的流域的观测和模拟低流量指数进行评估

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摘要

Droughts and resulting low flows are a threat for society, economy, and ecosystems. Droughts are natural phenomena, but anthropogenic water use can increase the pressure on water resources. To analyze the effects of changing land-use or water management and climate variability/change on water resources, models integrating the most important hydrological processes are needed. These models must account for natural processes and water resources management at different spatial and temporal scales, e.g., reservoir operation, water withdrawals. Low flow indices are analyzed for observed and simulated flows for the highly managed Sao Francisco river basin in Brazil, showing that during wet, normal, and moderately dry years, the existing reservoir system is able to augment low flows while during strong droughts the system reaches its limits. This effect is also represented in the simulations using the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was adapted to account for region-specific characteristics of land-use and water management. While good to very good performance was achieved for calibration and validation for most gauges, for some gauges at tributaries only insufficient quantitative criteria are reached. The reasons for the deviation between observations and simulation results are discussed. Overall, the model is able to represent natural discharges and observed, managed discharges.
机译：干旱及其导致的低流量是对社会，经济和生态系统的威胁。干旱是自然现象，但是人为使用水资源会增加水资源压力。为了分析土地利用或水资源管理变化以及气候变化/变化对水资源的影响，需要综合最重要的水文过程的模型。这些模型必须考虑不同时空尺度上的自然过程和水资源管理，例如水库运行，取水量。分析了巴西圣弗朗西斯科河流域得到高度管理的低流量指数，以观察和模拟流量，这表明在潮湿，正常和中度干旱的年份，现有的水库系统能够增加低流量，而在强干旱期间，该系统达到它的极限。在使用生态水文模型SWIM进行的模拟中也体现了这种影响，该模型适用于说明特定地区的土地利用和水资源管理特征。尽管大多数量规的校准和验证都达到了很好的性能，但对于支流处的某些量规，却只能达到不足的定量标准。讨论了观测值与模拟结果之间偏差的原因。总体而言，该模型能够代表自然排放量以及观察到的，管理的排放量。

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