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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Quantifying the known unknowns: estimating maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in the face of uncertainty
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Quantifying the known unknowns: estimating maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in the face of uncertainty

机译：量化已知的未知数：面对不确定性，估算人口的最大内在增长率

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摘要

Sensitivity to overfishing is often estimated using simple models that depend upon life history parameters, especially for species lacking detailed biological information. Yet, there has been little exploration of how uncertainty in life history parameters can influence demographic parameter estimates and therefore fisheries management options. We estimate the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase (rmax) for ten coastal carcharhiniform shark populations using an unstructured life history model that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in life history parameters. We evaluate how the two directly estimated parameters, age at maturity amat and annual reproductive output b, most influenced rmax estimates. Uncertainty in age at maturity values was low, but resulted in moderate uncertainty in rmax estimates. The model was sensitive to uncertainty in annual reproductive output for the least fecund species with fewer than 5 female offspring per year, which is not unusual for large elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and seabirds. Managers and policy makers should be careful to restrict mortality on species with very low annual reproductive output 2 females per year. We recommend elasmobranch biologists to measure frequency distributions of litter sizes (rather than just a range) as well as improving estimates of natural mortality of data-poor elasmobranchs.
机译：通常使用简单的模型来估计对过度捕捞的敏感性，这些模型取决于生活史参数，尤其是对于缺乏详细生物学信息的物种。然而，关于生命史参数的不确定性如何影响人口参数估计值以及渔业管理选择的研究很少。我们使用非结构化的生命历史模型（明确地说明了生命历史参数的不确定性），估算了十个沿海甲鱼类鲨鱼种群的最大固有种群增长率（rmax）。我们评估两个直接估计的参数，即成熟无性的年龄和每年的繁殖产量b，对rmax估计的影响最大。成熟度值的年龄不确定性较低，但导致rmax估计值存在中等不确定性。该模型对每年繁殖少于5个雌性后代的最少繁殖力物种的年繁殖产量的不确定性敏感，这对于大型弹性支，海洋哺乳动物和海鸟并不罕见。管理者和决策者应谨慎控制死亡率，使其年繁殖产量极低<每年雌性少于2只的物种。我们建议弹bra生物学家测量垫料大小（而不是一个范围）的频率分布，并改善缺乏数据的弹bra自然死亡率的估计。

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