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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Sources of variation in stomach contents of predators of Atlantic herring in the Northwest Atlantic during 1973-2014
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Sources of variation in stomach contents of predators of Atlantic herring in the Northwest Atlantic during 1973-2014

机译:1973-2014年间西北大西洋大西洋鲱鱼捕食者胃内容物变化的来源

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摘要

Spatial and temporal variation in stomach-contents data is often unquantified or combined in such a way (e.g. averaged among years) that true signal in diets may be lost. Using a delta approach, this paper fits generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to the amount of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) identified in predator stomachs using only data from stomachs in which herring occurred, and to the probability that a stomach contained herring. Both the amount of herring in stomachs and the probability of a stomach containing herring varied seasonally, spatially, and among years. Of the random effects in each GAMM, the effect of predator species had the largest variance. An index of herring abundance derived from the stomach-contents data was generally consistent with recent herring stock assessments. The temporal and spatial variation in the stomach-contents data suggested that the effect of averaging or combining stomach-contents data among years, seasons, or areas may lead to falsely precise or biased estimates from multispecies assessments or in estimates of consumption, and may restrain the relevance of static foodweb models.
机译:胃内容物数据的时空变化通常无法量化或以某种方式结合(例如,按年平均),以致饮食中的真实信号可能会丢失。本文使用增量法,将广义加性混合模型(GAMM)拟合为仅使用发生鲱鱼的胃中的数据在捕食者胃中识别出的大西洋鲱鱼(Clupea harengus)的数量,以及将胃中包含鲱鱼的概率进行拟合。胃中鲱鱼的数量和胃中含有鲱鱼的可能性在季节,空间和年份之间都不同。在每个GAMM中的随机效应中,捕食者物种的效应方差最大。从胃内容数据得出的鲱鱼丰度指数通常与最近的鲱鱼种群评估相一致。胃内容物数据的时空变化表明,在年,季节或地区之间平均或组合胃内容物数据的效果可能会导致多物种评估或消费量估计中的错误准确或有偏见的估计,并且可能会限制静态食物网模型的相关性。

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