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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Toward a tier system approach for calculating limits on human-caused mortality of marine mammals
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Toward a tier system approach for calculating limits on human-caused mortality of marine mammals

机译：迈向计算人为造成的海洋哺乳动物死亡率限制的分层系统方法

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The Potential Biological Removal (PBR) management strategy is used for the assessment, relative to management objectives, of human-caused mortality of marine mammal stocks. PBR has been used to provide scientific advice on limits on human-caused mortality of marine mammals as well as other long-lived marine vertebrates worldwide. Current values for the parameters of this reference limit were obtained using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach, where computer simulation is used to model a range of scenarios representing different scientific uncertainties. An assumption underlying the current management strategy, as originally evaluated, is that only the single most recent estimate of abundance is used to calculate PBR. We extend the original MSE and introduce a tiered hierarchy of data availability, from data-rich to data-poor. Alternative approaches for deriving values used to calculate PBR in each tier (e.g. incorporating multiple abundance estimates for data-rich stocks) are evaluated relative to the management objectives of the United States Marine Mammal Protection Act. A PBR tier system would allow the best available information to be used for each stock, recognizing the different types and levels of uncertainty that exist among stocks. It is shown that if the sex ratio of human caused mortality is not one, PBR may not perform as expected. Likewise, an alternative value for the NMIN percentile could be adopted when survey estimates are imprecise and multiple abundance estimates are available. The standard approach, using only a single abundance estimate, is less flexible in this regard. Additionally, incorporating multiple abundance estimates for data-rich stocks can lead to increased stability of calculated values for PBR through time. Reduction in variability could reduce regulatory uncertainty that may be associated with some human activities managed according to PBR. Therefore, including multiple abundance estimates, when possible, into the calculation of PBR may prove desirable.
机译：潜在的生物清除（PBR）管理策略用于相对于管理目标评估人为造成的海洋哺乳动物种群死亡率。 PBR已被用于就限制人类造成的海洋哺乳动物以及全世界其他长寿海洋脊椎动物的死亡率提供科学建议。使用管理策略评估（MSE）方法获得此参考限制的参数的当前值，其中使用计算机模拟来建模代表不同科学不确定性的一系列情景。如最初评估的那样，当前管理策略的基础假设是，仅使用单个最新的丰度估计来计算PBR。我们扩展了原始的MSE，并引入了从数据丰富到数据贫乏的数据可用性分层体系。相对于《美国海洋哺乳动物保护法》的管理目标，评估了用于推导用于计算每一层中PBR的值的替代方法（例如，对数据丰富的种群合并了多个丰度估计值）。 PBR等级系统将允许对每种股票使用最佳可用信息，从而认识到股票之间存在的不同类型和水平的不确定性。结果表明，如果人为导致的死亡率的性别比不为1，则PBR可能无法达到预期的效果。同样，当调查估计值不精确并且有多个丰度估计值时，可以采用NMIN百分位数的替代值。在这方面，仅使用单个丰度估计的标准方法不太灵活。此外，为数据丰富的股票合并多个丰度估计值可以提高PBR计算值随时间的稳定性。减少变异性可以减少可能与根据PBR管理的某些人类活动相关的监管不确定性。因此，在可能的情况下，在PBR的计算中包括多个丰度估计可能证明是合乎需要的。

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