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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Challenging ICES age estimation protocols: lessons learned from the eastern Baltic cod stock
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Challenging ICES age estimation protocols: lessons learned from the eastern Baltic cod stock

机译：挑战性的ICES年龄估算协议：从波罗的海东部鳕鱼种群汲取的教训

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摘要

Over the recent decades, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has set guidelines for best practise quality control of age estimation procedures. The applicability of these guidelines is assessed by reviewing the ageing issues of eastern Baltic cod (EBC) as a case study. Since the implementation of an age-based assessment of EBC in the beginning of the 1970s, the assessment has been hampered by the quality of the age composition data, in recent years to a degree that age-based assessment is no longer used. The reason for the age reading problems is the low visual contrast between growth zones in the otoliths which seems to be the result of complex interactions of the hydrography in the Baltic Sea with the cod's biology and behaviour. Over the last 40 years, various expert groups have struggled to document and improve the agreement of age estimation between national otolith readers, standardize methods and age estimations through repeated exchanges and reference collections as well as an internationally agreed manual. Despite these initiatives the precision of the age estimations based on traditional ageing did not improve, with significant bias persisting between and within readers. Additionally, a wide range of alternative methods for deriving the age information necessary for stock assessment and for validation of the true age have been tested. However, these methods did not produce unbiased age estimates over the entire size and age range of the EBC stock. An age-validation is urgently needed. Deviations from the ICES guidelines identified are as follows: (i) the lack of rigorous quality control, particularly the auditing of national trends in age precision over the years using a reference collection and (ii) the implementation of an age error matrix in the stock assessment.
机译：在最近的几十年中，国际海洋探索理事会（ICES）为年龄估计程序的最佳实践质量控制制定了指南。这些准则的适用性通过案例研究回顾了波罗的海东部鳕鱼（EBC）的老化问题进行评估。自1970年代初开始执行基于年龄的EBC评估以来，该评估受到年龄构成数据质量的阻碍，近年来，这种程度已不再使用基于年龄的评估。年龄阅读问题的原因是耳石中生长区之间的视觉对比度低，这似乎是波罗的海的水文学与鳕鱼的生物学和行为之间复杂相互作用的结果。在过去的40年中，各个专家小组一直在努力记录和改进国家耳石读者之间的年龄估算协议，通过反复交流和参考收藏以及国际认可的手册来标准化方法和年龄估算。尽管采取了这些举措，但基于传统年龄的年龄估计的准确性并未提高，读者之间和内部仍然存在明显的偏差。此外，已经测试了各种各样的替代方法，这些方法可得出股票评估和验证真实年龄所必需的年龄信息。但是，这些方法并未在EBC股票的整个规模和年龄范围内产生无偏的年龄估计。迫切需要年龄验证。所确定的与ICES准则的差异如下：（i）缺乏严格的质量控制，尤其是使用参考资料收集对多年来的年龄精度国家趋势进行审核，以及（ii）在库存中执行了年龄误差矩阵评定。

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