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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Assessing uncertainty of a multispecies size-spectrum model resulting from process and observation errors
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Assessing uncertainty of a multispecies size-spectrum model resulting from process and observation errors

机译：评估过程和观测误差导致的多物种规模光谱模型的不确定性

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摘要

Ecosystem models, specifically multispecies dynamic models, have been increasingly used to project impacts of fishing activity on the trophodynamics of ecosystems to support ecosystem-based fisheries management. Uncertainty is unavoidable in modelling processes and needs to be recognized and properly quantified before models are utilized. Uncertainty was assessed in this study for a multispecies size-spectrum model that quantifies community structure and ecological characteristics. The uncertainty was assumed to result from errors in fish life-history and metabolic scale parameters, environmental variability, fishing variability, and sampling errors. Given the same level of imprecision, metabolic scale parameters had the dominant influence on the uncertainty of the size spectrum modelling results, followed by life-history parameters. Both types of errors led to "scenario uncertainty", suggesting the possible existence of alternative states of community structure. Environmental variability, fishing variability, and observation errors resulted in "statistical uncertainty", implying that such uncertainty can be described adequately in statistical terms. The results derived from such a simulation study can provide guidance for identifying research priorities to help narrow the gap in scientific knowledge and reduce the uncertainty in fisheries management.
机译：生态系统模型，特别是多物种动态模型，已越来越多地用于预测捕捞活动对生态系统营养动力学的影响，以支持基于生态系统的渔业管理。在建模过程中，不确定性是不可避免的，需要在使用模型之前对其进行识别和适当量化。在这项研究中评估了不确定性的多物种规模光谱模型，该模型量化了社区结构和生态特征。假定不确定性是由于鱼类生活史和代谢尺度参数，环境可变性，捕鱼可变性和采样误差造成的。给定相同的不精确度，代谢尺度参数对尺寸谱建模结果的不确定性具有主要影响，其次是生命历史参数。两种类型的错误均导致“场景不确定性”，这表明可能存在社区结构的替代状态。环境变化，捕鱼变化和观察误差导致“统计不确定性”，这意味着可以用统计术语充分描述这种不确定性。此类模拟研究的结果可为确定研究重点提供指导，以帮助缩小科学知识的差距并减少渔业管理中的不确定性。

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