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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Modelling the spread and connectivity of waterborne marine pathogens: the case of PaV1 in the Caribbean
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Modelling the spread and connectivity of waterborne marine pathogens: the case of PaV1 in the Caribbean

机译：模拟水生海洋病原体的传播和连通性：以加勒比地区的PaV1为例

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The PaV1 virus infects spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus) throughout most of the Caribbean, where its prevalence in adult lobsters can reach 17% and where it poses a significant risk of mortality for juveniles. Recent studies indicate that vertical transmission of the virus is unlikely and PaV1 has not been identified in the phyllosoma larval stages. Yet, the pathogen appears subclinically in post-larvae collected near the coast, suggesting that lobster post-larvae may harbour the virus and perhaps have aided in the dispersal of the pathogen. Laboratory and field experiments also confirm the waterborne transmission of the virus to post-larval and early benthic juvenile stages, but its viability in the water column may be limited to a few days. Here, we coupled Lagrangian modelling with a flexible matrix model of waterborne and post-larval-based pathogen dispersal in the Caribbean to investigate how a large area with complex hydrology influences the theoretical spread of disease. Our results indicate that if the virus is waterborne and only viable for a few days, then it is unlikely to impact both the Eastern and Northwestern Caribbean, which are separated by dispersal barriers. However, if PaV1 can be transported between locations by infected post-larvae, then the entire Caribbean becomes linked by pathogen dispersal with higher viral prevalence in the North. We identify possible regions from which pathogens are most likely to spread, and highlight Caribbean locations that function as dispersal "gateways" that could facilitate the rapid spread of pathogens into otherwise isolated areas.
机译：PaV1病毒感染整个加勒比海大部分地区的刺龙虾（Panulirus argus），在成年龙虾中，其盛行率可达到17％，并且对未成年者构成重大死亡风险。最近的研究表明，病毒的垂直传播是不可能的，并且在叶状瘤的幼虫阶段还没有发现PaV1。然而，病原体亚临床出现在海岸附近收集的幼虫后，这表明，幼虫后龙虾可能藏有病毒，并可能有助于病原体的传播。实验室和野外实验也证实了该病毒在幼虫期和底栖幼体早期的水传播途径，但其在水柱中的生存能力可能仅限于几天。在这里，我们将拉格朗日模型与基于水和幼虫后病原体在加勒比地区扩散的弹性矩阵模型相结合，以研究大面积复杂的水文学如何影响疾病的理论传播。我们的结果表明，如果该病毒是水传播的并且只能存活几天，那么它就不可能影响被分散屏障隔开的东部和西北加勒比地区。但是，如果PaV1可以通过感染后的幼虫在不同地点之间运输，那么整个加勒比海地区将通过病原体扩散与北部病毒感染率较高联系起来。我们确定了病原体最有可能传播的可能区域，并突出显示了充当散布“门户”的加勒比地区，这些地点可以促进病原体迅速传播到其他偏远地区。

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