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Modelling prey consumption and switching by UK grey seals

机译：通过英国灰海豹模拟猎物的消费和交换

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摘要

Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are adaptable generalist predators whose diet includes commercial fish species such as cod. Consumption by the seals may reduce the size of some fish stocks or have an adverse effect on stock recovery programmes, especially because predation may trap sparse prey populations in a "predator pit". To assess the likely impact of such effects, it is important to know how consumption and consequent predation mortality respond to the changing availability of prey. We present a model of grey seal consumption as a function of the availability of multiple prey types [a Multi-Species Functional Response (MSFR)]. We fit this MSFR to data on seal diet and prey availability (based on the overlap between the distributions of predators and prey). Bayesian methodology was employed to account for uncertainties in both dependent and independent variables, improve estimation convergence by the use of informative priors, and allow the estimation of missing data on prey availability. Both hyperbolic (Type 2) and sigmoidal (Type 3) functional response models were fitted to the data and the Type 3 model was clearly favoured during model selection, supporting the conclusion that seal-prey encounter rates change with prey abundance (sometimes referred to as "switching"). This suggests that some prey species may be vulnerable to predator pit effects. The fitted model reproduced contrasts in diet observed between different regions/years and, importantly, added information to the prior distributions of prey abundance in areas where the availability of some prey species (such as sandeels) was not known. This suggests that the diet of predators such as seals could provide information about the abundance and distribution of prey in areas that are not covered by fisheries and research surveys.
机译：灰海豹（Halichoerus grypus）是适应性强的捕食者，其饮食包括鳕鱼等商业鱼类。海豹的消费可能会减少某些鱼类种群的规模，或对种群恢复计划产生不利影响，特别是因为捕食会将稀疏的猎物种群困在“捕食者坑”中。为了评估这种影响的可能影响，重要的是要知道消费和随之而来的捕食死亡率如何应对不断变化的猎物供应。我们提出了灰海豹消费的模型，该模型是多种猎物类型[多物种功能响应（MSFR）]的可用性的函数。我们将此MSFR拟合到海豹饮食和猎物可用性的数据（基于捕食者和猎物分布之间的重叠）。贝叶斯方法被用来解释因变量和自变量的不确定性，通过使用信息先验来改善估计收敛性，并允许估计缺失的猎物数据。将双曲线（类型2）和S形（类型3）功能响应模型均拟合到数据中，并且在模型选择期间明显偏爱类型3模型，从而支持了海豹-猎物遭遇率随猎物丰富度而变化的结论（有时称为“猎物”） “交换”）。这表明某些猎物物种可能易受捕食者坑效应的影响。拟合模型再现了在不同地区/年之间观察到的饮食差异，重要的是，在某些猎物物种（例如桑德斯）的可获性未知的地区，该信息为先前的猎物丰度分布增加了信息。这表明，诸如海豹之类的捕食者的饮食可以提供有关渔业和研究调查未涵盖的区域中猎物的数量和分布的信息。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2014年第1期|81-89|共9页
  • 作者

    Sophie Smout; Anna Rindorf; Philip S. Hammond; John Harwood; Jason Matthiopoulos;

  • 作者单位

    NERC Sea Mammal Research Unit and Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, Scotland, UK;

    DTU Aqua, jaegersborg Alle 7, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark;

    NERC Sea Mammal Research Unit and Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, Scotland, UK;

    NERC Sea Mammal Research Unit and Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, Scotland, UK;

    lnstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medicine, Veterinary & Life Sciences, Graham Ken Building University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, Scotland, UK;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    apparent competition; Cod recovery program; encounter rate; Gadhus morhua; Halichoerus grypus; predator-prey interaction; predator trap; prey preference; prey suitability;

    机译：明显的竞争;鳕鱼恢复计划;遭遇率Gadhus morhua;嗜盐气单胞菌;食肉动物与猎物的互动;捕食者陷阱猎物偏好猎物适合性;

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