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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach
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Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

机译：是Calanus spp。在北大西洋向极地转移？栖息地建模方法

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摘要

In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C glacialis, C. helgolcmdicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (ⅰ) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ⅱ) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (ⅲ) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.
机译：在过去的十年中，基于北大西洋东部浮游生物连续记录仪调查的分析，发现了与海洋变暖有关的海洋极向性迁移最明显的例子之一。这项研究的主要目的是验证浮游动物物种（Calaus finmarchicus，C glacialis，C。helgolcmdicus，C。hyperboreus）的极地偏移，并已对其分布变化进行了记录，并评估了这种偏移的程度是由海洋变暖引发的，使用了通用添加模型。为此，将观测数据的人口重心与一系列模拟实验的人口重心进行了比较：（ⅰ）仅使用气候因素的模型（即基于生态位的模型）来模拟物种栖息地的适应性；（，）使用仅用时间和空间条件来重建人口分布，并且（ⅲ）将两个因素结合在一起的模型，使用观测的子集作为独立的数据集进行验证。我们的发现表明，只有C finmarchicus受到海洋变暖的影响才具有一致的极移，在北大西洋，估计速度为每十年每公里8.1公里（东北地区为每十年每英里16.5公里），这在组合水平上大大低于以前的工作，并且受到限制到东北大西洋。相反，尽管其在北海的北部分布范围已向北偏移，但其正向所有方向扩展。人口主要位于西北大西洋的加拉加斯冰川和超梭状芽孢杆菌显示出轻微的南移，这可能是对拉布拉多洋流向南渗透的凉水的反应。我们的方法在高模型精度的支持下，显示了其在检测物种纬度偏移和确定其原因方面的能力，因为观测数据的出现趋势受采样频率的影响，采样频率随时间逐渐集中到较低纬度。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2014年第2期|241-253|共13页
  • 作者

    Guillem Chust; Claudia Castellani; Priscilla Licandro; Leire Ibaibarriaga; Yolanda Sagarminaga; Xabier Irigoien;

  • 作者单位

    AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera kaia portualdea z/g 20110 Pasaia, Spain;

    Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK;

    Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK;

    AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera kaia portualdea z/g 20110 Pasaia, Spain;

    AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera kaia portualdea z/g 20110 Pasaia, Spain;

    AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera kaia portualdea z/g 20110 Pasaia, Spain,Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Calanus; climate change; habitat model;

    机译：卡努斯气候变化;生境模型;

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