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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Model prediction vs. reality—testing the predictions of a European eel (Anguilla anguilla) stock dynamics model against the in situ observation of silver eel escapement in compliance with the European eel regulation
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Model prediction vs. reality—testing the predictions of a European eel (Anguilla anguilla) stock dynamics model against the in situ observation of silver eel escapement in compliance with the European eel regulation

机译：模型预测与实际情况的比较-根据欧洲鳗鱼法规对欧洲鳗鱼种群动态模型的预测与银鳗逃逸的现场观察进行对比测试

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摘要

A direct monitoring of European silver eel (Anguilla anguilla, L) escapement from rivers and estuaries has been proven to be challenging, and a Europe-wide documentation of escaping silver eel numbers therefore hardly seems realistic. To reinforce management decisions, policy-makers are thus widely reliant on the accuracy of escapement models. A 3-year programme of silver eel escapement monitoring was undertaken to compile model input data and revise an eel population model (German Eel Model II; GEM II) already used in the decision-making process of management authorities. By compiling necessary input data and analysing vital system-specific population characteristics, it was possible to compare the documented silver eel escapement with the modelled potential silver eel escapement. Resulting model predictions were close to actually monitored escapement numbers, which were distinctly lower than reference escapement values for the same freshwater system given in the implementation report of the German Eel Management Plans. Applying different commercial and recreational catch scenarios revealed the sensitivity of the model. The results show the potential of the GEM II and highlight the importance of high-quality input data to use model predictions as the basis for management measures.
机译：对从河流和河口逃逸的欧洲银鳗（安圭拉安圭拉，L）的逃逸进行直接监测已被证明具有挑战性，因此在欧洲范围内逃逸银鳗数量的文件似乎并不现实。为了加强管理决策，决策者因此广泛依赖擒纵模型的准确性。开展了一项为期三年的银鳗逃逸监测计划，以汇编模型输入数据并修改已经在管理当局决策过程中使用的鳗鱼种群模型（德国鳗鱼模型II； GEM II）。通过收集必要的输入数据并分析特定于生命系统的重要种群特征，可以将已记录的银鳗逃逸与已建模的潜在银鳗逃逸进行比较。模型预测结果接近实际监测的擒纵数，明显低于德国鳗鱼管理计划实施报告中给出的同一淡水系统的参考擒纵值。应用不同的商业和休闲捕捞情景说明了该模型的敏感性。结果显示了GEM II的潜力，并突出了使用模型预测作为管理措施基础的高质量输入数据的重要性。

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