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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty
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Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty

机译：模拟太平洋秋刀鱼对未来气候变化及其不确定性的生态响应

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摘要

An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model was used to investigate the responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to global warming. The model was forced by the projected sea surface temperature (SST) generated by climate models that formed the bases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). Twelve climate models, which reproduced the Pacific Decadal Oscillation well compared with observations, were selected and B1, A1B, and A2 emissions scenarios were used. In total, 33 ensemble simulations were conducted, of which 24 (73%) showed a decrease in wet weight of Pacific saury. The migration pattern was modified in 11 (33%) cases. In these cases, higher SST and size reduction under global warming prevented or delayed the southern migration of saury in winter. As a result, egg production was enhanced by the higher availability of prey plankton in the modified spawning region. A case study to separate the direct temperature effects was conducted, in which prey plankton density was assumed to be the same as the control run. The results suggest that an SST increase will directly reduce juvenile growth, whereas a prey plankton density decrease has an influence on the growth of adults and migration pattern, and hence egg production.
机译：基于生态系统的生物能学模型用于研究太平洋秋刀鱼（Cololabis saira）对全球变暖的响应。该模型是由气候模型生成的预计海表温度（SST）推动的，该模型构成了政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（IPCC-AR4）的基础。选择了十二个气候模型，这些模型与观测值相比很好地再现了太平洋年代际振荡，并使用了B1，A1B和A2排放情景。总共进行了33次合奏模拟，其中24次（73％）显示太平洋秋刀鱼的湿重降低。在11（33％）个案例中修改了迁移模式。在这些情况下，由于全球变暖导致的海温升高和尺寸减小，阻止或推迟了冬季秋刀鱼的南方迁移。结果，在改良后的产卵区，浮游生物的捕食能力更高，从而提高了产蛋量。进行了一个案例研究以分离直接的温度影响，在该案例中，假定猎物的浮游生物密度与对照实验的密度相同。结果表明，SST的增加将直接降低幼鱼的生长，而猎物的浮游生物密度的降低则对成年鱼的生长和迁移方式以及卵的产生产生影响。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2013年第5期|980-990|共11页
  • 作者

    Shin-ichi Ito; Takeshi Okunishi; Michio J. Kishi; Muyin Wang;

  • 作者单位

    Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001, Japan;

    Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001, Japan;

    Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611, Japan,Research Institute for Clobal Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanazawa 236-0001, Japan;

    Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA,Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA 98115, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    CMIP3; SST; ecosystem model; egg production; fish growth; fish migration; global warming; Pacific saury; uncertainty;

    机译：CMIP3;SST;生态系统模型;鸡蛋生产;鱼类生长;鱼类迁移;全球暖化;秋刀鱼;不确定;

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