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Overconfidence in model projections

机译：对模型预测过度自信

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摘要

There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.
机译：海洋生态系统和渔业状况引起了公众和政治上的极大兴趣，但是最近一些预测的可靠性受到质疑。主要新闻媒体经常根据著名科学期刊的出版物报道有关鱼类种群减少，生物多样性丧失，气候影响和管理失灵的新信息。欢迎公众和政治认识到海洋生态系统普遍发生的消极变化，特别是如果它导致采取有效的补救行动，但是这种行动的科学依据必须是可靠的，并且必须充分透明地陈述由模型和数据缺陷引起的不确定性。科学期刊起着重要作用，应该要求更详细的分析和不确定性的表述。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2013年第6期|1065-1068|共4页
  • 作者

    Keith Brander; Anna Neuheimer; Ken Haste Andersen; Martin Hartvig;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua) Technical University of Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark;

    Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA;

    Center for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua) Technical University of Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark;

    Center for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua) Technical University of Denmark Charlottenlund Castle, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark,Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 75, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate; fisheries; marine ecosystems; model reliability; projections;

    机译：气候;渔业;海洋生态系统;模型可靠性;投影;

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