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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Integrated risk analysis for rare marine species impacted by fishing: sustainability assessment and population trend modelling
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Integrated risk analysis for rare marine species impacted by fishing: sustainability assessment and population trend modelling

机译:捕捞影响的稀有海洋物种的综合风险分析:可持续性评估和人口趋势建模

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摘要

Risk assessment and conservation management of rare species are challenging due to a lack of data. We developed an integrated risk assessment approach to assess human impact on population sustainability of rare species. The approach involved two components: a quantitative sustainability assessment coupled with modelling trends in relative abundance. Both components took nil catches into account through zero-inflated statistical distributions that simultaneously modelled the zero and non-zero catches separately in submodels. The sustainability assessment used detection - non-detection data for population estimation and linked sustainability to easily collected life-history traits. This component provides an assessment of population sustainability at one point in time. The trend modelling applied zero-inflated negative binomial models to temporal trends in density and dispersion of species. It provided a complement to the static sustainability assessment. We applied this integrated approach to assess the risk to 14 species of rare, protected sea snakes incidentally caught in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery. This approach can be applicable for risk assessment of many species with limited abundance data, a large number of absences and some presence-absence information only.
机译:由于缺乏数据,稀有物种的风险评估和保护管理面临挑战。我们开发了一种综合风险评估方法,以评估人类对稀有物种种群可持续性的影响。该方法包括两个部分:定量的可持续性评估以及相对丰度的建模趋势。这两个组件都通过零膨胀的统计分布将零渔获量考虑在内,该统计分布同时在子模型中分别对零渔获量和非零渔获量进行建模。可持续性评估使用检测-非检测数据进行人口估计,并将可持续性与容易收集的生活历史特征联系起来。该部分在某个时间点评估了人口的可持续性。趋势建模将零膨胀负二项式模型应用于物种密度和扩散的时间趋势。它为静态可持续性评估提供了补充。我们采用这种综合方法来评估澳大利亚北部对虾捕捞中偶然捕获的14种稀有保护海蛇的风险。这种方法仅适用于丰度数据有限,大量缺勤和某些缺勤信息的许多物种的风险评估。

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