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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Both predation and feeding opportunities may explain changes in survival of Baltic salmon post-smolts
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Both predation and feeding opportunities may explain changes in survival of Baltic salmon post-smolts

机译：捕食和觅食的机会都可以解释波罗的海鲑在鲑鱼后生存的变化

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摘要

The survival of wild and hatchery-reared post-smolts of salmon (Salmo salar) in the Baltic Sea has declined since the 1990s. Direct observations of the processes affecting survival are, however, lacking. Here, the importance of food availability and predation in regulating post-smolt survival is analysed. Based on previous studies, the following explanatory variables were selected: (i) availability of herring (Clupea harengus membras) recruits in the Gulf of Bothnia (Bothnian Sea, Bothnian Bay) in the northern Baltic Sea; (ii) sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) and herring abundance in the southern Baltic Sea; and (iii) abundance of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) along the post-smolt migration route. Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the relative probability of each of the 32 combinations of these variables and revealed that the model including grey seal abundance and herring recruits per post-smolt had the highest posterior probability and a high coefficient of determination. The results suggest that the declining trend in post-smolt survival is explained by the increased number of grey seals, whereas the annual variation in survival coincides with variation in the recruitment of Bothnian Sea herring. However, it remains uncertain whether the observed correlations arise from direct causalities or other mechanisms.
机译：自1990年代以来，波罗的海鲑鱼（Salmo salar）的野生和孵化场饲养的鲑鱼的生存率一直在下降。但是，缺乏对影响生存的过程的直接观察。在这里，分析了食物供应和捕食对调节后代生存的重要性。根据先前的研究，选择了以下解释性变量：（i）波罗的海北部的博特尼亚湾（伯特尼海，博特尼亚湾）的鲱鱼（Clupea harengus membras）新兵的可获得性； （ii）波罗的海南部的鲱鱼（Sprattus sprattus balticus）和鲱鱼丰富； （iii）沿软体动物迁徙后路线的大量灰海豹（Halichoerus grypus）。贝叶斯分析被用来估计这些变量的32个组合中每一个的相对概率，并揭示了包括灰海豹丰度和每只后嗅的鲱鱼新兵在内的模型具有最高的后验概率和较高的确定系数。结果表明，熏鲑后存活率的下降趋势是由灰海豹数量的增加所解释的，而存活率的年度变化与博特尼亚海鲱的招募变化相吻合。然而，仍然不确定所观察到的相关性是否来自直接因果关系或其他机制。

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  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2012年第9期|p.1574-1579|共6页
  • 作者

    Samu Mantyniemi; Atso Romakkaniemi; Johan Dannewitz; Stefan Palm; Tapani Pakarinen; Henni Pulkkinen; Anna Gardmark; Olle Karlsson;

  • 作者单位

    Fisheries and Environmental Management Croup (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 65, FI-00074 University of Helsinki, Finland;

    Finnish Came and Fisheries Research Institute, PO Box 413, FI-90014 University of Oulu, Finland;

    Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Freshwater Research, Stangholmsvagen 2, SE-778 93 Drottningholm, Sweden;

    Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Freshwater Research, Stangholmsvagen 2, SE-778 93 Drottningholm, Sweden;

    Finnish Came and Fisheries Research Institute, PO Box 2, FI-00791 Helsinki, Finland;

    Finnish Came and Fisheries Research Institute, PO Box 413, FI-90014 University of Oulu, Finland;

    Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Coastal Research, Skolgatan 6, SE-742 42 Oregrund, Sweden;

    Department of Contaminant Research, Swedish Museum of Natural History, PO Box S0007, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    correlation; food availability; grey seals; herring; model probability; predation; salmo salar;

    机译：相关性食物供应;灰色的海豹;鲱鱼;模型概率掠夺萨尔莫萨拉尔;

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