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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
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Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change

机译：在未来气候变化的影响下，白令海东部的角膜白鳕（Theragra chalcogramma）的招募预计会下降

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摘要

A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock {Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock-recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and pre-dation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040-2050 should expectedly decline by 32-58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.
机译：建立了统计模型，以将白令海东部角膜白斑鳕（Theragra chalcogramma）的募集与夏末海表温度的变化以及主要捕食者的生物量联系起来。该模型基于对狭鳕的新认识的最新进展，这表明温暖的春季条件可提高幼体的存活率，但夏末和秋季的高温与一年生幼狭的狭鳕的摄食条件有关并减少了次年招聘。基于IPCC的一系列气候预测，采用统计缩减方法来生成到2050年夏末温度预报的集合。这些预测用于模拟年龄结构的库存预测模型中的未来招聘，该模型考虑了密度相关的影响（库存-招聘关系），温度和捕食的估计影响以及相关的不确定性。平均而言，预计2040-2050年的招募相对于随机招募方案将下降32-58％，这取决于温度关系，密度依赖性的大小以及捕食者生物量未来变化的假设。此处说明的方法可用于评估不同管理策略的绩效，并为面临快速变化的气候的管理人员提供长期的战略建议。

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