• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Importance of age structure in models of the response of upper trophic levels to fishing and climate change
【24h】

Importance of age structure in models of the response of upper trophic levels to fishing and climate change

机译：年龄结构在较高营养水平对捕鱼和气候变化的响应模型中的重要性

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

There is a growing effort to use predictions of the physical state of the ocean under climate change to forecast the response of marine ecosystems. Many of these forecasts use ecosystem models rather than age-structured population models to describe upper trophic level (UTL) species. We illustrate the potential effects of climate on age-structured populations, then illustrate the ways in which ecosystem models might not depict adequately: (i) long-term changes in abundance, and (ii) variability attributable to cohort resonance. We simulated two generic species with different life histories, a short-lived semelparous species (e.g. salmon), and a long-lived iteroparous species (e.g. cod). For both species, juvenile survival was varied, first with white noise, then with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as environmental signals. Variability in recruitment increased with fishing and became particularly sensitive to forcing at time-scales near the mean age of reproduction, consistent with the cohort resonance effect. Ecosystem models without age structure do not predict this behaviour, particularly when the ecosystem model incorrectly predicts the effective steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship, or the age structure is approximated by a stage-structured model. We suggest that ecosystem models of UTLs include full representations of age structure, fitted to available population data.
机译：人们越来越多地使用气候变化下海洋物理状态的预测来预测海洋生态系统的响应。这些预测中有许多使用生态系统模型而非年龄结构的种群模型来描述高营养水平（UTL）物种。我们说明了气候对年龄结构化人口的潜在影响，然后说明了生态系统模型可能无法充分描述的方式：（i）丰度的长期变化，以及（ii）归因于队列共鸣的变异性。我们模拟了两种具有不同生活史的通用物种，一种短寿命的同卵物种（例如鲑鱼）和一种长寿命的异种物种（例如鳕鱼）。对于这两个物种，少年的生存率都有所不同，首先是白噪声，然后是太平洋十进制振荡作为环境信号。随着捕鱼的增加，招募的变异性增加了，并且对逼迫在接近平均繁殖年龄的时间尺度上变得特别敏感，这与队列共振效应一致。没有年龄结构的生态系统模型无法预测这种行为，特别是当生态系统模型错误地预测种群-招聘关系的有效陡度，或者年龄结构由阶段结构模型来近似时。我们建议，UTL的生态系统模型应包含年龄结构的完整表示，并与可用的人口数据相适应。

著录项

  • 来源
    《ICES Journal of Marine Science》 |2011年第6期|p.1270-1283|共14页
  • 作者

    Louis W. Botsford; Matthew D. Holland; Jameal F. Samhouri; J. Wilson White; Alan Hastings;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, 7 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, 7 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Boulevard E, Seattle, WA 98112, USA;

    Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, 7 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    age structure; climate; fisheries; population modelling; upper trophic levels;

    机译：年龄结构;气候;渔业;人口建模;营养上层;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号