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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Apocalypse in world fisheries? The reports of their death are greatly exaggerated
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Apocalypse in world fisheries? The reports of their death are greatly exaggerated

机译：世界渔业的启示？他们的死亡报告被大大夸大了

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The catch-based methods underlying the forecast that by 2048 all commercially exploited stocks will have collapsed have been severely criticized, and a recent and more-elaborate analysis by a group of scientists that included the lead author of the original article has led to a quite different interpretation. Nonetheless, the 2006 forecast of a forthcoming apocalypse in the oceans is still uncritically referred to by critics of current management and fisheries science. In the title, the quote by Mark Twain is paraphrased to underline the fact that this prediction is both technically and conceptually flawed: (i) any series of random numbers subjected to the algorithm underlying the prediction will show a pattern similar to that observed in catch statistics; (ii) this pattern should be accounted for in making predictions; and (iii) interpreting the period of maximum harvest in a time-series as generally reflecting a period during which a stock was fully exploited is incorrect, because history often has shown that these maximum yields were taken during a period of overex-ploitation and could not have been sustainable.
机译：预测到2048年所有被商业开发的股票都将崩溃的预测是基于捕捞的方法，这一方法受到了严厉的批评，包括原始文章的主要作者在内的一组科学家最近进行了更为详尽的分析，得出了相当可观的结论。不同的解释。尽管如此，对当前管理和渔业科学的批评者仍然不加批判地提到2006年海洋将要出现的启示。在标题中，马克·吐温（Mark Twain）的用语意在强调该预测在技术和概念上都存在缺陷的事实：（i）接受该预测所依据的算法的任何随机数序列都将显示与捕获中观察到的模式相似的模式统计; （ii）在做出预测时应考虑到这种模式； （iii）将时间序列中的最大收获期解释为通常反映种群被充分利用的时期是不正确的，因为历史常常表明，这些最大产量是在过度耕种期间取得的，并且可能不是可持续的。

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