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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters
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The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters

机译：北大西洋海表温度的低频变化和长期趋势对爱尔兰水域的影响

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摘要

Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series collected in Irish waters between 1850 and 2007 exhibit a warming trend averaging 0.3℃. The strongest warming has occurred since 1994, with the warmest years in the record being 2005, 2006, and 2007. The warming trend is superimposed on significant interannual to multidecadal-scale variability, linked to basin-scale oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system. The dominant modes of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic SST records, investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, correspond to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, respectively, accounting for 23, 16, and 9% of the total variance in the dataset. Interannual variability in Irish SST records is dominated by the AMO, which, currently in its warm phase, explains approximately half of the current warm anomaly in the record. The EAP and the NAO influence variability in Irish SST time-series on a smaller scale, with the EAP also contributing to the current warm anomaly. After resolving the prevalent oscillatory modes of variability in the SST record, the underlying warming trend compares well with the global greenhouse effect warming trend. The anthropogenic contribution to the current warm anomaly in Irish SSTs was estimated at 0.41℃ for 2006, and this is predicted to increase annually.
机译：1850年至2007年间在爱尔兰水域中收集的海表温度（SST）时间序列显示平均为0.3℃的变暖趋势。自1994年以来发生了最强的变暖，有记录以来最暖的年份是2005、2006和2007年。变暖趋势​​叠加在与海-气系统盆地尺度振荡相关的年际至数十年尺度变化上。使用经验正交函数（EOF）分析调查的北大西洋SST记录中低频变化的主要模式，对应于大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO），东大西洋模式（EAP）和北大西洋振荡（NAO） ）索引，分别占数据集中总差异的23％，16％和9％。爱尔兰SST记录的年际变化主要由AMO决定，AMO目前处于暖期，解释了该记录中当前暖异常的一半。 EAP和NAO在较小范围内影响爱尔兰SST时间序列的变异性，EAP也助长了当前的暖异常。解决了SST记录中普遍存在的振荡变率模式后，潜在的变暖趋势与全球温室效应变暖趋势相比较。据估计，2006年爱尔兰人海表温度对人为温暖的异常的人为贡献为0.41℃，并且预计每年将增加。

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